Trilateral Meeting Between Putin, Xi and Trump?

Statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the importance of his anticipated meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during next month's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen have sparked speculation about the possibility of a trilateral gathering involving US President Donald Trump, a move that could open the door to direct dialogue among the leaders of the three powers.

Analysts believe that holding a trilateral meeting remains a viable possibility, but it requires prior groundwork, along with reaching common ground and setting realistic expectations regarding achievable outcomes.

In a message sent to Xi Jinping on Thursday for China's National Day, the Russian president described their upcoming meeting on the sidelines of the APEC summit as "fruitful," expressing hope that it would contribute to strengthening the comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation between the two countries.

Trump is also expected to attend the summit, which will be the first APEC forum attended by Putin since 2017, opening the door to the possibility of the leaders of China, Russia, and the United States being present at the same event, according to the South China Morning Post.

Yuri Ushakov, Kremlin aide for foreign policy, had publicly raised the possibility of a trilateral meeting during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek on September 1, when he noted, in response to a question about the idea, that "this issue was discussed."

Potential Meeting Requires Preparation
Liu Shu, a researcher at the National Academy for Development and Strategy at Renmin University of China, believes the probability of a trilateral meeting remains high, noting that multiple anticipated meetings between China and the United States this year may create different conditions for leadership talks.

Liu explained that a meeting between Putin, Trump, and Xi would carry symbolic significance, demonstrating that Russia remains a key player in international affairs despite its ongoing confrontation with much of the Western world over the war in Ukraine.

The war enters its fifth year amid continuing Western sanctions that have damaged the Russian economy, while Putin faces internal challenges related to the conflict's repercussions.

However, Sun Chenghao, a researcher at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, argues that the participation of all three leaders in the same summit does not necessarily imply an agreement to hold a formal meeting among them.

Sun stated that a trilateral meeting remains a realistic possibility, but there is a difference between attending the same summit and agreeing to a formal meeting, suggesting that informal conversations might suffice.

He added that China, as the host country, can facilitate communication among the three leaders, but the primary challenge lies in reaching a shared agenda and defining realistic achievable results.

He pointed out that short talks or informal meetings require less preparation compared to a formal trilateral summit with a specific agenda, which demands more extensive preparations and prior consensus.

Beijing Seeks to Expand Dialogue Channels
Analysts believe any potential trilateral meeting could provide China with an additional channel to manage its relations with both Washington and Moscow amidst existing tensions among major powers.

Liu Shu said Beijing has not sought to assume a public mediation role between Russia and Ukraine, limiting itself to calling for a political settlement, but he noted that a meeting of the three leaders could signal a shift, although China maintains a stance of neutrality.

Sun Chenghao emphasized that while such a meeting would be diplomatically significant, practical constraints remain. He suggested that the focus should be on de-escalation mechanisms rather than grand geopolitical realignments.

Experts caution that without clear preconditions, a trilateral format risks becoming merely symbolic. The complexity of bilateral issues—particularly those involving territorial disputes and economic sanctions—makes a unified agenda difficult to construct.

Nevertheless, the mere prospect of such a high-level engagement underscores the shifting dynamics of global power structures, where traditional alliances are being tested against new pragmatic partnerships.