Trump, Putin and Xi on the Threshold of First Trilateral Summit: Will It Redraw International Relations?

Indications are growing regarding the possibility of holding the first trilateral meeting bringing together US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum summit, scheduled to take place in the Chinese city of Shenzhen on November 18 and 19, amid discussions among officials from the three countries concerning arrangements for the potential meeting and its agenda.

According to reports by the Financial Times citing informed sources, American, Chinese, and Russian officials are engaged in serious discussions about holding the summit, which would be the first of its kind if convened, at a time when Trump seeks to improve Washington's relations with both Beijing and Moscow.

A meeting bringing together the three leaders would raise questions and concerns in Europe and Asia regarding the possibility of reaching understandings or special deals that could affect US alliances and its relationships with other partners.

Commenting on the possibility of holding the meeting, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that there is a general understanding among potential participants that the summit would be appropriate and highly beneficial.

Trump had expressed, last October, his openness to conducting trilateral talks with Xi and Putin regarding arms control, noting the possibility of discussing other files, including trade.

He told journalists on October 19 that the meeting could address nuclear weapons and nuclear disarmament, if the Chinese president showed willingness to do so.

Arms Control and Nuclear File
The talk about the summit comes in light of the three countries possessing large nuclear arsenals, as data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute indicates that Russia holds the largest number of stored nuclear warheads, followed by the United States and then China.

A person familiar with the matter told Reuters last month that the White House has been studying for weeks the possibility of holding a meeting between the three leaders, focusing on nuclear disarmament, on the sidelines of the APEC summit.

However, the final agenda for the potential meeting remains unclear, nor are there confirmed indications regarding the files that will be discussed in detail if the summit takes place.

Putin Seeks to Raise Ukraine and Economic Cooperation
In addition to the nuclear file, the war in Ukraine emerged as one of the topics Putin may seek to raise during the meeting.

According to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the discussions, the Russian president proposed using the meeting to negotiate ending the four-year ongoing war in a way that serves Moscow's interests.

Nevertheless, the Financial Times cited an informed source stating that Moscow does not expect substantive talks on Ukraine during the Shenzhen summit, given its belief that China does not wish to take a leading role in mediation efforts.

The source added that Moscow sees Beijing as not seeking credit for any settlement unless a peace agreement becomes imminent. Conversely, the Kremlin indicated in recent days the necessity of European participation in any talks related to resolving the Ukrainian conflict.

Putin also showed interest in reopening the path of economic cooperation between Russia and the United States, having proposed last month a meeting with Trump in China while receiving US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in talks in St. Petersburg. According to Russian state television, Putin also offered to discuss resuming economic cooperation between Moscow and Washington.

Ambiguity Regarding Beijing's Position
Despite movements related to the potential meeting, China's position on holding a trilateral summit remains clearly undecided.

The Financial Times reported that German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said on Sunday that Xi Jinping appeared confused when asked about the possibility of holding the summit during their meeting in China last week.

This comes at a time when discussions continue among the three parties regarding the nature and feasibility of the meeting, while Moscow still expects the summit, if held, to focus on files other than Ukraine, particularly arms control, trade, and economic relations.

While Trump seeks to improve his country's relations with Moscow and Beijing, the possibility of gathering him with Putin and Xi in a single meeting remains tied to the outcomes of ongoing consultations and the extent of consensus on the summit's agenda, amidst divergent positions regarding the war in Ukraine and China's role in settlement efforts.