Trump Faces Multiple Challenges in Pursuit of Iran Nuclear Deal

President Donald Trump’s attempts to reach a permanent agreement with Iran are encountering increasing obstacles. Although a ceasefire has reopened diplomatic channels, the fundamental issue of what restrictions Tehran might accept on its nuclear program remains unresolved.

The Washington Post reported that Trump’s efforts to finalize a deal with Tehran have faced strong headwinds, including Iran’s demonstration of control over the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli escalation in Lebanon, and persistent accusations from the Republican right wing that Trump has conceded too much to secure an agreement.

These challenges highlight the difficulty Trump faces in turning a fragile ceasefire into a lasting accord after months of conflict that caused a sharp rise in energy prices. While ending hostilities addressed Trump’s immediate concerns about oil prices and stock markets, the core question about the nature of limits Iran would accept on its nuclear program remains unanswered.

In this context, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance met with Iranian negotiators in Switzerland on Sunday, aiming to ensure Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief.

Iran’s Leverage in Negotiations

Trump may find himself with less influence than during talks held in February before the outbreak of war with Iran. At that time, Iranian leaders feared a U.S. attack could topple their regime. Now, the government has demonstrated its resilience, surviving even after the assassination of its former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28.

Trump had previously identified halting oil shipments from the Gulf region as a key pressure point, while Iran has shown its ability to disrupt global energy markets by threatening to target vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Vice President Vance and other senior U.S. officials seeking breakthroughs at the negotiating table must address numerous issues that Trump postponed to secure the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, effectively restoring conditions to those before the initial U.S. strikes on February 28. The concessions made by the White House to return to negotiations have become a focal point of criticism against Trump.

U.S. Deterrence Strategy

The Washington Post noted that Trump no longer demands regime change in Iran, despite earlier promises of “help on the way” to Iranians. He also acknowledged Iran’s need for ballistic missiles, a stance that has displeased U.S. allies who feel threatened by these weapons. Trump emphasized his desire to avoid any actions that could destabilize stock markets.

Aaron David Miller, an expert on U.S.-Israeli relations who has advised multiple Republican and Democratic administrations on Middle East policy, told the newspaper: “There is little room left for him to maneuver or to strike back at the Iranians.”

Miller added that applying pressure on Tehran “would effectively mean resuming war or reinstating a naval blockade, but that would have consequences” that Trump has expressed a desire to avoid. He concluded, “We have largely undermined our deterrence capability toward Iran.”

Miller explained that the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei long sought to avoid a scenario in which the U.S. and Israel conduct a prolonged military campaign against Iran. “But they went through that experience and not only survived it, they also found a way to maintain regime cohesion,” he said.

Domestic Electoral Pressures

The current phase poses significant risks for Trump and the Republican Party, as inflation worsened by the conflict has increased pressure on many of the president’s supporters. This has driven Trump to try to regain control over the economy ahead of the midterm elections scheduled for November.

A Fox News poll released last week showed that 58% of voters believe the United States made the wrong decision in launching military action against Iran in February. Conversely, 75% of Republicans supported the decision, while only 35% of voters approved of Trump’s handling of the Iran issue.

Nonetheless, Vance expressed optimism as he traveled to meetings with Iranian negotiators in Switzerland on Saturday, two days after the originally scheduled talks were postponed due to Israeli escalation in Lebanon, which served as an early test of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding.

Before departing Washington, Vance told reporters: “We will have to continuously manage this situation to ensure both Israel and Lebanon remain safe and stable. That is the primary goal—to make the entire region safe and stable.”

He added, “I hope we make progress on the nuclear issue and on the ceasefire in Lebanon. These are the two main issues we will focus on.”

Strait of Hormuz as a Key Pressure Point

Repeated Iranian statements about closing the Strait of Hormuz have underscored the scale of the challenges facing Trump’s diplomatic efforts. Before February 28, Iran’s influence over this vital maritime passage was theoretical and untested, according to The Washington Post.

Now, Tehran has demonstrated the capability to disrupt navigation through the strait using mines and drones. Approximately 20% of global oil and natural gas supplies pass through this route.

Last week, Trump said his concerns about global energy prices and declining oil reserves were major factors motivating his pursuit of a peace agreement.

On Saturday, Iran announced the closure of the strait in protest against Israeli attacks on Lebanon. However, the U.S. military confirmed the waterway remains open for navigation, while the shipping tracking company Kepler reported only 20 vessels passed through, compared to a daily average of 130 before the war.

The Washington Post noted that Iran can disrupt navigation without attacking ships directly, as ship captains may avoid risking passage and insurers might raise premiums or refuse coverage.

On Saturday, Trump expressed frustration with the situation in the Strait of Hormuz via social media, stating: “There will be no transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days during the ceasefire, and no fees after that period,” despite Iran’s announcement of plans to impose new fees on vessels crossing the strait.

The president also threatened to impose fees for “services the United States provides as the guardian of Middle Eastern countries,” although the U.S. military effectively lacks a mechanism to collect such fees.

Rising Disputes with Israel

Trump and his supporters assert that Iran’s navy has been destroyed and many missile launch platforms eliminated. They argue that the current Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, is more willing to strike a deal and implement reforms, and that Tehran is now further from acquiring nuclear weapons than before the war.

Nonetheless, the president and vice president face increasing criticism from figures who supported the initial strikes, especially after their tougher rhetoric toward Israel last week and their condemnation of Israel for not adhering to the terms of the agreement.

Meanwhile, Israel continues targeting sites it claims belong to Hezbollah in Lebanon, while U.S. intelligence agencies have warned that Israel might attempt to undermine the agreement.

The Washington Post suggested that including the ceasefire in Lebanon within the agreement is likely to prolong tensions in U.S.-Israeli relations, effectively positioning Washington closer to Iran’s stance than Israel’s regarding attacks on Lebanon.

Brian Kilmeade, host of Fox & Friends and a strong Trump supporter, was quoted saying: “If you want Israel to comply with the plan, you have to tell them what it entails. They weren’t even part of the talks, then suddenly they found themselves obligated by it.” He added, “Iran has to tell Hezbollah, which does everything it is told, to stop, and then Israel will stop as well.”