US Pressure to Resume Russian Gas Sales via Ukraine Amid Efforts for a Deal

The United States supports a rapid resumption of Russian natural gas sales to Europe through pipelines passing through Ukraine, as part of negotiations aimed at reaching a ceasefire on energy facilities before winter arrives, according to what "Wall Street Journal" reported on Monday from American, European, and Ukrainian officials.

American envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff discussed the idea during visits to Moscow and Kyiv last September. The concept involves selling Russian gas through an American intermediary to bypass European sanctions, which could offer a "profitable opportunity" for American investors, according to people who attended the discussions.

Current EU legislation stipulates phasing out all purchases of Russian natural gas by the end of 2027. Leaders of major European countries stated they do not wish to return to dependence on energy supplies from a country they consider their greatest strategic threat.

Targeting Energy Facilities
The plan was temporarily suspended last month after Ukraine unilaterally halted its strikes against Russian oil refineries under pressure from US President Donald Trump.

Kyiv stopped its attacks on Russian refineries for nearly two weeks while Russia continued bombing Ukraine's energy infrastructure and began shipping diesel to the United States. Washington shifted its focus to the possibility of reaching a more comprehensive peace agreement.

But Kyiv resumed its air campaign on Friday, launching three attacks on three major Russian refineries over the past three days. This added new urgency to efforts aiming for a more comprehensive ceasefire on energy facilities ahead of trilateral peace talks scheduled between the US, Russia, and Ukraine in mid-November in Abu Dhabi.

Russia has so far rejected American attempts to reach such an agreement.

Strategic Weakness
American negotiators believe that Russia's return to the European natural gas market would provide a strong incentive for Russian President Vladimir Putin to approve the deal. Additionally, using the Soviet-era pipeline network that transports gas to Europe via Ukraine from the Urengoy gas fields in Siberia would provide Kyiv with urgently needed transit fee revenues.

A senior American official told the newspaper that White House officials proposed that Russia deposit the revenues it earns from gas sales to Europe into an escrow account with a third party, so that the Kremlin does not use the funds to finance its war.

American officials tried to persuade European leaders of the idea as a means to lower energy prices before a winter where European gas reserves have reached their lowest seasonal levels in several years.

This pressure represents a radical shift from the stance of the first Trump administration. At that time, Trump repeatedly criticized German Chancellor Angela Merkel due to the construction of the "Nord Stream 2" pipeline from Russia. He warned that the project would make Germany "a hostage of Russia," and imposed sanctions on it in late 2019.

A little over two years later, Russia invaded Ukraine, betting that Europe would not respond due to its significant economic dependence on Moscow, while the financing of the Russian army relied on energy export revenues.

But the war led Europeans to view dependence on Russian natural gas as a "strategic weakness" against a hostile power they no longer trust. The EU adopted legislation sharply reducing Russian gas imports and mandating a complete ban by the end of next year.

European Rejection of Resuming Russian Gas Purchases
The current official European position is that the EU will not resume buying Russian gas even after a full peace agreement with Russia, let alone resuming it within the framework of a fragile ceasefire on energy facilities that allows Putin to continue the war and provides funding for his army.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said in an interview with a Hungarian newspaper last October, confirmed by his office, that the ban on Russian gas imports should be permanent. He said: "I certainly won't trust Russia, even if peace is achieved tomorrow, which we all hope for." The Trump administration bets that European resistance will ultimately prove less solid than it appears.

But some senior European officials speak more clearly in private conversations. A senior Nordic official said the idea of resuming Russian gas purchases contradicts everything Europeans believe in.

A senior official from a major European country likened the matter to former British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain sacrificing Czechoslovakia for Hitler in exchange for trade deals.

For its part, the United States now believes that reopening the "Nord Stream" line eventually could be an important element in a larger agreement, not only aimed at ending the war in Ukraine but also addressing long-standing tensions between Russia and America's European allies.

A senior American official said Merkel's mistake lay in proceeding with the pipeline project without first working on a broader security arrangement with Russia, within which Moscow could feel comfortable.

The "Nord Stream" Line
Russia and Germany built the first "Nord Stream" line to bypass pipeline networks passing through Ukraine in 2011. "Nord Stream 1" stopped delivering gas in August 2022, while "Nord Stream 2" never entered service.

The lines suffered severe damage from underwater explosions attributed to Ukraine in September 2022. Restarting them would take a long time, even if political and regulatory obstacles could somehow be overcome.

An American official said negotiators discussed various economic proposals throughout the negotiation period. He added that Europeans showed interest in a proposal that would significantly lower gas prices across the continent, noting that any economic agreements would be part of a comprehensive peace deal.

In contrast, the pipeline network passing through Ukraine, connected to Slovakia and then to Austria and Germany, can be restarted almost immediately. Limited quantities of gas continued to flow through it until its closure in January 2025, long after the outbreak of the full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine.

Today, only 11% of European natural gas comes from Russia, down from 45% on the eve of the war. American liquefied natural gas accounts for 30% of European consumption, while Russian gas is imported either via LNG tankers or through the "Nord Stream" lines supplying Hungary and Slovakia.

European officials acknowledge that the repercussions of the Iran war may weaken Europe's resistance. Qatari LNG shipments remain stuck inside the Persian Gulf, while global energy price increases persisted despite more oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Europe spent an additional €100 billion, approximately $112 billion, on energy as a result of the conflict with Iran, according to the EU.

Underground natural gas storage levels in Europe are around 75%, while the continent will enter next winter with stocks below the average of the past nine years, according to EU energy sector regulators.

The far-right "Alternative for Germany" party, the largest opposition party in Germany, made resuming cheap Russian natural gas imports a core part of its campaign ahead of elections scheduled for 2028.

Diplomats said changing Europe's stance would be easier if Kyiv endorsed gas sales within a ceasefire agreement preventing power outages and potential humanitarian disasters in major Ukrainian cities, which could lead to a new wave of refugee displacement in the coming months.

This takes on particular importance as Ukraine's air defense systems run low, while the United States restricts supplies of "Patriot" interceptor missiles amid a global shortage caused by the war on Iran.