Oil Supply Shortfall Expected to Worsen Globally as Gulf Recovery Delayed Until 2027

The International Energy Agency announced it has once again lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2026, amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and a sharp rise in fuel prices, especially diesel.

It also projected a worsening global oil supply deficit in 2026, expecting "a delay in the full recovery of oil supplies from producers in the Gulf until 2027".

The agency now forecasts an annual decline of 2.5 million barrels per day, compared to its previous August estimate of a 1.6 million barrels per day drop. Global oil consumption is expected to reach approximately 102.44 million barrels per day in 2026, down from 103.29 million barrels per day projected last month.