Russian Expert Warns of Sharp Global Sugar Price Rise Due to El Niño

Anatoly Tikhonov, director of the International Agricultural Business and Food Security Center at the Russian Presidential Academy, has issued a warning about the potential severe impact of the El Niño climate phenomenon on sugarcane crops in India.

Speaking to the Novosti agency, Tikhonov stated that a reduction in India's sugar production by between 3 and 8 million tons annually could force the country to halt its entire sugar export program. He added that if Brazil is unable to rapidly increase its sugar supplies due to limited processing capacity, global sugar prices are likely to rise substantially.

Tikhonov noted that sugarcane is India's second most important strategic crop after rice, and that India and Brazil jointly lead global sugar production and exports.

He pointed out that the Indian states of Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu—key sugarcane growing regions—are already experiencing signs of the approaching El Niño phenomenon and are suffering from water shortages.

The expert highlighted that white sugar futures on the London Exchange exceeded $660 per ton at the beginning of June, driven by news related to El Niño.

Tikhonov also mentioned that India has announced a suspension of sugar exports until September 30. He predicted that if India decides to completely stop sugar exports, global prices could rise to between $750 and $800 per ton.

He estimated that the increase in sugar prices would raise the cost of the food basket by 10 to 15 percent in many importing countries, especially in Africa and South Asia.

"If El Niño results in negative crop outcomes, this will affect the availability of goods in stores from Dhaka to Lagos," he said.

On the other hand, Tikhonov indicated that the Russian sugar market is fully supplied by domestic production. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced that the sugar beet harvest in 2025 reached 48.9 million tons, an 8.5 percent increase compared to 2024, confirming that these quantities are sufficient to meet domestic demand and export potential.