5 Months of Hiding: How Are Washington and Tel Aviv Trying to Reach Mojtaba?

Efforts by the United States and Israel to track Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei have entered a new phase, with the effectiveness of electronic surveillance tools declining and intelligence agencies increasingly relying on human intelligence in an attempt to determine his whereabouts after months of disappearing from sight.

According to a report published by the American newspaper "The Times," the US Central Intelligence Agency "CIA" and the Israeli intelligence agency "Mossad" are carrying out a joint operation to track Khamenei, who assumed the position of Supreme Leader after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike that targeted him on February 28 of last year.

This comes as US President Donald Trump continues to study his options regarding war with Iran, while the identity and location of the new Iranian leadership remain among the most prominent intelligence files being monitored by Washington and Tel Aviv.

Disappearance for about five months

According to the newspaper, Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared publicly since February, nor has he used a phone or laptop for nearly 150 days, making tracking him more complicated compared to his father's situation.

Intelligence estimates indicate that he is residing inside a fortified underground shelter, after sustaining injuries during the raid that killed his father, and avoids appearing publicly for fear of being spotted by American satellites.

From technology to human element

The Times explains that the operation targeting Ali Khamenei relied heavily on cyber capabilities, as the United States and Israel used advanced techniques including hacking surveillance cameras in Tehran and tracking the movements of vehicles belonging to his guards and aides.

The US National Security Agency (NSA) and the Israeli Electronic Intelligence Unit "8200" participated in the operation, which made it possible to locate a number of senior Iranian military and security leaders who were killed in the raid.

But these tools, according to the report, have become less effective in tracking Mojtaba Khamenei, who avoids using any electronic means of communication, which has pushed intelligence agencies to focus on human source networks inside Iran.

Is he still alive?

Despite official statements issued in his name, some Western intelligence circles continue to question whether Khamenei is actually alive.

The newspaper quoted intelligence sources as saying that some analysts do not rule out the hypothesis of his death, considering that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps may be continuing to issue statements in his name to maintain the legitimacy of the leadership during the war.

Therefore, the primary goal of the Mossad has become to verify that he is still alive, before moving on to determine his hiding place, whether inside the tunnel network in Tehran or in one of the military shelters near the city of Qom.

Betting on secret agents

Rami Igra, former head of a Mossad division, believes that the decisive element in the operation will be human intelligence, not electronic technologies.

He told the newspaper that Khamenei, even if he does not use a phone, must be relying on alternative means to convey instructions, through a chain of messengers who carry paper letters between intermediaries, so that each of them knows only a limited part of the operation.

He added that the best chance to reach him lies in recruiting a person in direct contact with him, but this faces great difficulty due to the strict security measures within the inner circle of the new leader, which only a very limited number of Revolutionary Guard commanders are believed to know how to access.

Igra also noted that the Mossad continues to monitor the phones of other figures and listen to conversations that may contain information about Khamenei's whereabouts, in addition to using online financial rewards to encourage Iranians to provide information.

Doubts about the official narrative

The former Israeli official also cast doubt on statements by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who announced that he met Khamenei for several hours and reassured himself about his health condition, considering this narrative to be "incorrect."

In the same context, Avner Avraham, a former Mossad officer, said that Iranian security agencies may resort to using people who resemble Khamenei, similar to the method used by the late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, in order to mislead foreign intelligence agencies.

He explained that the people responsible for delivering food or services may not know whether they are dealing with the real Khamenei or a substitute.

An audio message may reveal his location

The report suggests that the continued disappearance of Khamenei may at some point push the Iranian leadership to release an audio or video message to prove that he is still leading the country.

However, Avraham warned that any recording could in turn provide valuable intelligence information, as the type of recording devices used or the characteristics of the sound and surrounding environment could be analyzed, and perhaps the location where it was recorded could be deduced.

A political decision after locating him

The Times quoted a former US defense official as saying that Khamenei is likely following stricter security procedures since the raid that killed his father, which makes human intelligence more important than ever, while acknowledging that operating inside Iran remains one of the most difficult environments for US agencies, while the Mossad enjoys broader networks but not without limits.

The newspaper concludes by noting that the success of the United States and Israel in locating Khamenei will not be the end of the mission, as the final decision on how to deal with him will remain a political decision in Washington and Tel Aviv, amid questions within some intelligence circles about the feasibility of targeting more senior Iranian leaders at this stage, and whether any potential change in leadership would actually lead to a political transformation inside Iran.