Houthi Militia Moves to Contain Tribal Mobilization Under Iranian Supervision

As tribal mobilization intensifies in northern Yemen, the Houthi movement is increasingly concerned about the rising tensions with tribes escalating into open conflict. Within the militia’s leadership, divisions persist regarding strategies to manage the crisis and prevent it from evolving into a broader rebellion.

Military and tribal sources revealed that the Houthis are pursuing a security-focused approach aimed at containing tribal movements in the "Al-Rayan" area of Al-Jawf governorate and limiting the spread of its repercussions. This follows the failure of local and regional mediation efforts to reconcile differing positions, alongside the militia’s inability to attract parallel tribal movements within its territories in the north.

According to these sources, disagreements exist within the Houthi leadership circle about managing the crisis. One faction advocates limited concessions to ease tensions and avoid escalation, while a more hardline group rejects any response to tribal pressures, believing that concessions would encourage similar challenges that could undermine the militia’s authority and influence in the future.

Field Operations Room Established

Sources indicated that several influential Houthi commanders recently relocated from Sanaa to Al-Hazm district, the center of Al-Jawf governorate, to establish a field operations room responsible for managing the file and evaluating options to address the tribal coalition and its demands. This includes preparing scenarios for security and military intervention should containment efforts fail, following high-level directives to prevent the expansion of "tribal gatherings" and suppress any movements likely to develop into widespread tribal rebellion within Houthi-controlled areas.

The operations room operates under the direct supervision of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard officer present in Yemen, signaling Tehran’s support for the Houthis in controlling the crisis and managing increasing internal pressures.

Concurrently, the militia has launched extensive military deployments in Al-Jawf governorate, preparing for possible confrontations with tribes gathered in the "Matarah Al-Karama" area in Al-Rayan. Alongside this, the Houthis have pursued parallel efforts aimed at sowing discord among allied tribes, attempting to weaken their cohesion and reduce their collective pressure capability.

Sources noted that on Monday, the Houthis dispatched significant military reinforcements to the town of Al-Yatmah and surrounding mountainous areas, located approximately 100 kilometers from the tribal gathering sites in Al-Rayan. These reinforcements included artillery units and elements from the militia’s "Elite" forces.

Setback in Tribal Mobilization

On the tribal front, the Houthis faced a setback on Tuesday when they failed to organize an armed tribal "Nakf" (pledge) event in Al-Yatmah market. The tribes of "Dhu Hussein" refused to participate in any action that would fracture the position of the "Dham" tribes, affirming their commitment to unity and support for the demands of those assembled in "Matarah Al-Karama." Consequently, the militia was compelled to relocate the event to another location.

Since the tribal mobilization began about two weeks ago, the Houthis attempted to leverage the stances of some tribes within their controlled areas, hoping to portray these as opposition to the tribal gathering. However, these events quickly turned into occasions for declaring rejection of the militia’s policies aimed at subjugating tribes and limiting their autonomy.

With containment options dwindling, the militia recently increased its combat readiness in the northern outskirts of Marib governorate adjacent to Al-Jawf. This involved human and military mobilization operations in the Al-Raghwan district under their control, reflecting preparations to impose a military cordon around tribal gathering areas in anticipation of potential developments in this strategic sector.

A woman claiming to be the daughter of the late Iraqi president Saddam Hussein appealed to Yemeni tribes for support and relief from injustice after a powerful Houthi leader seized her properties and assets in Sanaa.

Responding to her plea, the tribes demanded her release and the restoration of her possessions. This action represents the largest of its kind in years, following a prolonged period of Houthi policies aimed at subjugating tribes and reshaping their centers of influence to reduce their impact on social, political, and military decisions.

Possible Future Scenarios

In this context, the Mukha Center for Strategic Studies considers the current developments among the most sensitive political and security challenges for the Houthis, as they originated within one of the most important tribal environments under militia control. The issue also involves tribal and social dimensions that go beyond traditional political divisions.

The center’s study, published Tuesday, outlined three main potential paths for the crisis. The first involves successful mediation efforts to contain tensions and reach a settlement preventing escalation, though this would maintain underlying grievances, making the issue a significant reference point in shaping future relations between tribes and the Houthis.

The second path envisions the issue becoming a focal point for increasing tribal and political pressures on the Houthis through expanding tribal solidarity and growing opposition to militia policies. This could provide the Yemeni government with an opportunity to rebuild communication bridges with the tribes and strengthen its presence within Houthi-controlled areas.

Although considered the least likely, the third scenario carries the greatest impact. It anticipates that crisis developments could coincide with broader military escalation, transforming tribal tensions into an additional variable in the conflict’s equations and imposing new security challenges on strategic fronts, particularly around Marib, Al-Jawf, and areas adjacent to Yemen’s northern borders.