Prime Ministership in Exchange for Reconciliation: A New Maneuver by Netanyahu to Win Back Lieberman

The Hebrew newspaper "Maariv" revealed today, Monday, about a "proposed plan" within the Likud party regarding the possibility of returning the head of the "Israel Beiteinu" party, Avigdor Lieberman, to the camp of caretaker Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

According to the Hebrew newspaper, Likud is proposing the option of rotating the prime ministership between the two, or even considering moving Netanyahu to the presidency. However, these ideas have not gone beyond internal discussion, and no formal proposal has been presented to Lieberman, who previously rejected them categorically due to "lack of trust."

Lieberman finds himself facing a clear political dilemma after the election results, according to "Maariv." He had previously set three declared red lines: refusing to sit with Netanyahu, abstaining from supporting any government relying on Arab parties even if support is outside the coalition, and avoiding sitting with the Haredim (ultra-Orthodox).

But these three commitments do not align with the current parliamentary reality. The four parties of the Change bloc are unable to form a government alone, placing Lieberman before two options: either concede one or more of his red lines, or remain outside the decision-making circle, according to "Maariv"'s assessment.

Gadi Eisenkot's party, Naftali Bennett's party, Yair Lapid's party, and the Democrats led by Yair Golan hold 41 seats together. Adding Israel Beiteinu's seats brings the total to only 48 seats, a number far below the required majority of 61 seats.

Theoretically, a government can be formed with fewer numbers if the number of supporters in a confidence vote exceeds the opponents. Those close to Eisenkot are studying scenarios including a government supported by 49 Knesset members, including Yoav Segalovich from the Ra'am party, against 46 opponents, with the United Torah Judaism and Ra'am parties abstaining from voting.

This scheme remains far from completion and any binding agreements, but it reflects the prevailing mentality in Eisenkot's alliance circles, where all scenarios are studied and all possible majorities calculated in search of a path to the premiership, even if it requires bypassing Lieberman and his seven seats.

Lieberman's Revisions
In contrast, some officials in Likud still imagine that Lieberman might revise his position. Ideologically, the Israel Beiteinu party is closer to Likud on several issues compared to some potential partners in the Change bloc.

However, ideological proximity is not enough to repair relationships damaged by years of suspicion and resentment. Likud circles are returning to talk about the possibility of convincing Lieberman to join Netanyahu, with a proposal to raise the price to the extent of rotating the leadership of the government.

Although the idea is circulated within the party, it has not been formally presented to Lieberman, who publicly and categorically rejected it. It seems that this explicit rejection is not sufficient, under current circumstances, to stop speculations within Likud. However, rotation agreements carry a known problem and are not merely a price to be paid. Lieberman's trust in Netanyahu as a political partner is extremely low, if not non-existent.

The precedent of Benny Gantz reinforces this doubt. Gantz signed a rotation agreement with Netanyahu and entered the government, but his turn never came.

Likud circles have begun to propose ideas for guarantees, including support from President Isaac Herzog, and perhaps US President Donald Trump, for the agreement and ensuring its continuation. Some are also thinking about the possibility of Netanyahu becoming the state president later, which would give him an interest in maintaining the rotation.