Even Without a Majority, Indicators Spare Netanyahu a 'Catastrophic End' to His Political Future

The atmosphere and preliminary results surrounding the Israeli Knesset elections appear to indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has survived a dramatic electoral fall, even though he did not achieve a majority that would allow him to form a right-wing government including the parties allied with him before the elections.

After nearly final election results, the Likud party led by Netanyahu remains the largest representation in the Knesset, having won 26 seats, a decrease of 6 seats from the previous elections. Furthermore, his broader bloc secured 53 seats, just 8 seats short of the minimum required to form a government.

While the opposition bloc won 48 seats in the Knesset, and its leader Gadi Eisenkot won 21 seats to represent his "Yashar" party, this forces him, if he wishes to form a government, to ally with the two Arab lists in the Knesset, which achieved their highest-ever representation with 19 seats.

These results, which may change slightly as the counting of "double envelopes" begins, contradict pre-election polls that granted the opposition bloc wider representation and gave Eisenkot's party the largest share.

The election results reflect Netanyahu avoiding the risk of a catastrophic end to his political career and escaping the repercussions of the wave of crises that pursued him before the elections, starting from the failure to thwart the October 7, 2023 attack, through accusations of fabricating a confrontation with Iran to delay the elections.

The American CNN network states that "In a political career spanning more than three decades, Netanyahu was described as a failure countless times, only to prove in the end that obituaries for his career were written prematurely. It seems that the Israeli election results this week give the prime minister's opponents a chance to end his career, but under the country's harsh political system, this is no guarantee."

It adds: "Netanyahu has not yet won, but he has not lost either, and he must prevent his rivals from forming their own government; he may survive again."

Opposition Crisis
It points out that theoretically, the opposition holds about 67 seats, but these numbers are affected by ideological, national, and personal rivalries among the parties in the opposition camp.

Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats party, called on his partners to consider the Arab parties part of the bloc, rejecting what he described as "the racial division practiced by Netanyahu between Jewish and Arab votes."

But two of Eisenkot's right-wing allies, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, opposed any government relying on Arab parties, while the "Joint List" announced on Wednesday that it is ready for political cooperation and to "do everything in its power to end Netanyahu's rule."

What Will Netanyahu Do?
A source close to Netanyahu told the American network that "his main goal after the elections is to delegitimize Jewish-Arab political cooperation, thereby preventing it, which could lead to his return home."

The source added: "Netanyahu is extremely concerned about the formation of a minority left-wing government; indeed, Netanyahu intends to pressure opposition members individually not to cooperate with Arab parties."

After a fierce campaign against them throughout the election period, the Likud party issued a statement on Wednesday accusing Arab parties of "stealing the election" through bribery, threats, violence, and fraud.

For its part, the "Central Election Committee" said on Wednesday that it is examining the complaint, but the committee had already rejected thousands of complaints from various parties on election day.

A source told the network that "Netanyahu plans to neutralize this possibility by all means, including launching an attack on Iran or enlisting US President Trump to intervene in Israeli politics on his behalf."

The opposition fears that Netanyahu will exploit a security crisis to obstruct or prevent the formation of a new government.

Before the elections, Netanyahu pressured Trump to launch a joint attack on Iran, but Washington refrained from doing so, partly due to a warning from Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir that such action could affect the course of the electoral process.

An Israeli security source told the network that operational plans are ready and awaiting Trump's approval, possibly after the US midterm congressional elections.

On his side, an opposition source told the American network: "There is no way to know what Netanyahu will do; we realize he may try to push for escalation."

Another source added that Netanyahu "will do everything in his power to remain in office as prime minister, including stirring internal and external chaos."

Eisenkot, former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, called on Israeli security leaders Tuesday evening to remember that "Netanyahu is a temporary prime minister, without mandate or public trust."

What Next?
It is expected that the "Central Election Committee" will finish counting most votes by Thursday evening, after counting the "double envelopes," which include votes from soldiers, prisoners, hospital patients and staff, diplomats abroad, and voters with disabilities.

The committee estimates the number of double envelopes at between 430,000 and 480,000, a number sufficient for more than 10 seats. These envelopes are counted separately within a special audit process, and final results are expected to be announced on Thursday, after which political maneuvering will begin seriously.

The next step involves President Isaac Herzog taking the initiative, as his role after the elections is pivotal. His task is to consult with all elected parties regarding the candidate they recommend for the premiership, before choosing the candidate he believes is best suited to secure a majority of 61 seats.

This candidate does not have to be the leader of the largest party, but rather the one who possesses the most suitable path to form a governing coalition. It is likely that Eisenkot will receive more recommendations than Netanyahu, as Arab parties are expected to support him.

The chosen candidate has 28 days, extendable by another 14 days, to negotiate with other parties regarding ministerial posts, budgets, and policies to form a government. If he fails, the mandate passes to another candidate for four more weeks. If he also fails, the Knesset is given a short deadline to present an alternative candidate; if that fails, the Knesset is automatically dissolved and new elections are held.

Eisenkot's Options
Eisenkot's options are not entirely exhausted. Even without forming a government, the opposition can still use its parliamentary majority to replace the Knesset speaker and other key positions. This would limit Netanyahu's ability to govern and could enable the opposition to pass legislation.

But Eisenkot, a retired brigadier general, is not in the battlefield he prefers. Netanyahu's coalition still enjoys significant loyalty and is far from the risk of defections. The same does not apply to Eisenkot; his diverse coalition is less ideologically aligned, and any small step could lead to its disintegration and a return to elections.

Currently, the focus is on Herzog, whose role gains immense importance amid the current deadlock. With neither bloc holding a clear majority, Herzog may try to pressure Netanyahu and Eisenkot to form a national unity government.

Herzog said on Wednesday: "We must do everything in our power to avoid another round of elections." He called on party leaders to participate in consultations with an open mind.