Trump and Erdoğan's Ties Could Reshape NATO Influence Dynamics

US President Donald Trump has openly expressed admiration for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. During a recent meeting at the White House with NATO Secretary General, Trump indicated that he might not have planned to attend the alliance’s upcoming annual summit if it were not being held in Turkey.

This amicable relationship is currently helping to soften criticism from Washington and European capitals regarding Erdoğan’s treatment of political opponents. Simultaneously, it strengthens Turkey’s pivotal role as a mediator in conflicts ranging from Ukraine to Iran and Gaza, while supporting its ambitions to emerge as a major regional power.

David Satterfield, who served as US Ambassador to Turkey during Trump’s first term, told the Wall Street Journal, “It is impossible to guarantee the fate of competing authoritarian regimes forever... concern is warranted.” He added, “Does refraining from raising these issues enhance our ability to deal with Turkey on many critical strategic and tactical matters? In my opinion, absolutely not.”

Erdoğan has long sought to balance Turkey’s NATO membership—where it commands the alliance’s second-largest army—with its historical ties to Russia and Iran. The Wall Street Journal reported that Erdoğan’s authoritarian approach to maintaining power has sometimes hindered his agenda.

As a conservative Islamist and former political prisoner, Erdoğan implemented sweeping reforms to Turkey’s political system, centralizing power within the presidency. Nevertheless, he continues to face widespread opposition due to his handling of Turkey’s struggling economy and the erosion of political freedoms. European NATO members have consistently expressed dissatisfaction with these developments.

The United States has also experienced difficulties with Erdoğan’s previously close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, in recent years, Trump, who clashed with Turkey during his first term over the detention of an American evangelical pastor, has turned to Erdoğan as an influential diplomatic intermediary in the Middle East.

Trump reiterated his praise for Erdoğan following a Turkish government legal campaign last year that included the arrest of Erdoğan’s main political rivals.

At the same time, Trump’s criticisms of European allies and threats to withdraw the US from NATO have bolstered Erdoğan’s standing within the security alliance. Turkey’s growing prowess as a military supplier to other NATO members has also been enhanced.

Turkish-made drones received international acclaim after Ukraine deployed them in 2022 to destroy convoys of invading Russian military vehicles. The manufacturer, Baykar, currently exports these drones to over 33 countries and established a joint venture last year with a leading Italian aerospace company.

Another Turkish firm has designed and installed equipment at a Texas factory, now one of the Pentagon’s largest suppliers of globally rare artillery shells.

Mark Pierini, former EU Ambassador to Turkey and current senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, said, “This has political implications for Erdoğan. He wants the technical success of Turkey’s defense industry to translate into political success.”

However, a source familiar with the government’s thinking noted that Turkey’s defense industry achievements do not necessarily convert into political gains, citing ongoing US sanctions on Turkey’s Defense Industries Agency and Turkey’s long-stalled EU accession bid. The source stated, “It is very difficult to talk about trade-offs here. I do not believe the West ignores what is happening in Turkey in exchange for shared interests.”

Regarding Turkey’s position between Russia, Washington, and NATO, Erdoğan has become a key diplomatic partner for Trump. The Turkish president and other officials, including Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Intelligence Chief İbrahim Kalın, played central roles in mediating last year’s ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and helped broker negotiations in the conflict with Iran, leveraging Turkey’s relations with both sides.

Trump’s decision to cooperate with Erdoğan marks a departure from former President Joe Biden’s approach, who maintained distance from Erdoğan. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly stated, “President Trump has a great relationship with President Erdoğan of Turkey, who has been a great partner in the region.”

Trump and his administration have sought to assist Erdoğan by advancing arms sales deals opposed by prominent US lawmakers. In June, US Vice President J.D. Vance announced that officials were exploring ways to sell advanced F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, following years of Turkey’s exclusion from the program in response to its purchase of a Russian air defense system.

This deal caused a rift within NATO and sparked years of disputes in Turkey-US defense relations.

Analysts predict that the upcoming NATO summit will likely emphasize Turkey’s role as a relatively steady and predictable partner for Western allies in facing threats from Russia, Iran, and attempts by Trump to undermine the alliance.

Sinan Ülgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of the Istanbul-based EDAM research center, said, “Erdoğan plays a crucial role in containing Trump’s anger. I believe Erdoğan’s role prevents this stance from the US president from becoming extremely dangerous.”

The summit also arrives at a critical time for Erdoğan, who has served as Turkey’s prime minister and president for more than two decades.