US Intelligence Sees Iran's New Leader More Open to Nuclear Weapons Development

Recent assessments by US intelligence agencies have raised questions about the future direction of Iran's nuclear program, concluding that the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, appears more receptive than his predecessor and father, Ali Khamenei, to the prospect of acquiring nuclear weapons. This shift could alter the strategic calculations between Washington and Tehran and provide the Trump administration with additional justification to intensify military pressure on Iran, according to reports by the New York Times.

These evaluations come as the Trump administration considers expanding its military operations against Iran. While Washington maintains that Tehran has not resumed its nuclear program, it acknowledges that Iran has taken measures to preserve its nuclear assets and relocate some components to more fortified sites.

This situation revives concerns about the revival of a "nuclear threshold doctrine," which entails Iran positioning itself on the verge of possessing nuclear arms without officially declaring them. This approach allows Iran to maintain technical capabilities, centrifuges, and enriched materials as covert deterrents in managing international pressures and negotiations.

Although Mojtaba Khamenei has not publicly advocated for nuclear weapons possession, US intelligence believes his stance differs from that of his father, who was viewed as hesitant to make the political decision to manufacture a bomb, despite ongoing development of Iran’s nuclear program.

Distinct Approach to Nuclear Development

The New York Times cited US officials familiar with intelligence assessments stating that Washington views Mojtaba Khamenei, who assumed leadership after his father’s death in an Israeli attack supported by US intelligence at the onset of the war, as more inclined to advance nuclear weapons development, even though he has not explicitly declared such intentions.

The report added that US intelligence has long distinguished between Iran’s technical ability to produce nuclear weapons and the political decision to do so. It was believed that former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, despite supporting the continuation of the nuclear program, was reluctant to cross this threshold.

In 2005, Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa prohibiting the use of nuclear weapons and informed the International Atomic Energy Agency accordingly. However, this did not halt the development of the nuclear program or research and technologies that could bring Tehran closer to the capability to produce a weapon if the political decision were made.

The New York Times noted that most information about Mojtaba Khamenei’s positions was gathered before the outbreak of the war. He sustained injuries during the initial weeks, reducing his public appearances and communications due to security concerns and fears of targeted airstrikes.

US assessments also indicate that while the new Supreme Leader continues to govern the country, he has not yet consolidated the absolute influence his father wielded over more than 36 years.

"Bikax": Iran’s Most Fortified Nuclear Site

The New York Times reported that the US is monitoring Iranian efforts to safeguard the remaining nuclear infrastructure after Tehran moved several centrifuges to a highly fortified facility within a mountainous complex in central Iran, known to Washington as "Mount Axe."

The newspaper referenced Israeli intelligence information, first revealed by the Wall Street Journal, which detected the transfer of centrifuges to this new location.

US officials told the New York Times that this move does not indicate a resumption of uranium enrichment but is intended to protect nuclear equipment from potential US strikes at this stage.

US estimates suggest the new facility is more fortified than the Fordow and Natanz sites, situated at a depth that places it beyond the reach of conventional US bombs, including bunker-buster munitions used in previous attacks.

The New York Times also reported that Iran has increased deployment of ground forces around the site in anticipation of possible US special forces raids aimed at destroying the facility from within.

Strikes Delayed but Did Not End the Program

The New York Times noted that in June 2025, President Donald Trump ordered strikes on the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities using B-2 stealth bombers and Tomahawk missiles.

Although Trump announced at the time that these strikes had completely destroyed Iran’s nuclear program, subsequent US intelligence assessments concluded that the attacks delayed the program but did not eliminate it.

The report added that the program could have resumed activity within approximately six months if Iran had quickly repaired centrifuges or restarted enrichment at other sites. However, Tehran opted to preserve its facilities and postpone reactivation.

US intelligence further confirms that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains intact and accessible, maintaining the technical foundation for any future weapons program.

From Basic Bombs to Advanced Warheads

The New York Times stated that US intelligence believed near the end of the Biden administration that Iran was considering developing a rudimentary nuclear bomb to provide a deterrent capability, albeit limited in effectiveness and delivery options.

Current assessments indicate that Mojtaba Khamenei sees little value in this approach and is thought to support the development of more advanced nuclear warheads that could be miniaturized in the future and mounted on long-range missiles.

Despite this, the new Supreme Leader has not officially endorsed nuclear weapons possession in his public speeches. He has reiterated support for Iran’s nuclear program while expressing reservations about the agreement signed between Iran and the US last June, which stipulates that Tehran will not seek to produce nuclear weapons.

Khamenei stated that he permitted the agreement to be concluded but does not support it "in principle," a stance interpreted by US circles as indicating a tougher position than his father’s.

War Strengthens Pro-Nuclear Arguments

The New York Times quoted Rosemary Kilanić, director of the Middle East program at the Defense Priorities Center, stating that the recent war increases the likelihood of Iran pursuing nuclear weapons.

She added that Tehran now has stronger incentives to develop a nuclear deterrent capacity to prevent any future US or Israeli attempts to overthrow the regime, suggesting that the war may have produced outcomes contrary to the declared goal of preventing nuclear proliferation.

The newspaper also cited US officials who said that Iranian decision-makers who previously advocated for nuclear weapons as the sole guarantee against US or Israeli attacks have gained greater influence since the war, potentially intensifying internal pressure to reconsider Iran’s nuclear policy.

Consequently, US concerns extend beyond Iran’s ability to rebuild its nuclear program after military strikes to the possibility that the new leadership may be less hesitant in making the political decision that Tehran has avoided announcing for decades. This development could usher in a new phase of confrontation between Iran, the United States, and Israel.