Will Democratic Victory End US Support for Israel?

Democratic control of Congress, combined with growing Republican concern toward Israel, could lead to the largest reassessment of US support for its closest ally in the Middle East in decades, following elections partially influenced by anger over the war with Iran.

Democrats won both the Senate and House seats in the midterm elections held on Tuesday. Many of the winning candidates were from the progressive wing who campaigned against military aid to Israel and the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The Israeli campaign in Gaza and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's alignment with President Donald Trump and other Republicans had already put pressure on the traditional bipartisan support Israel enjoyed in the United States.

Democratic control might lead to increased scrutiny of military aid and violence in the West Bank, along with hearings and objections to Trump's appointments, but the president's veto power limits the party's ability to impose major policy changes.

Among the progressives who won was Abdul El-Sayed from Michigan, the first Muslim elected to the US Senate despite Republican attempts to win over Jewish voters who might have felt uncomfortable with his religion and criticism of Israel.

There were also indications that Republicans might reconsider their traditional pro-Israel stance.

Vice President J.D. Vance blamed the election loss on the Iran war on Wednesday, considering Israel a controversial issue within the Republican Party.

In a social media post, he said one pollster identified four actions that would restore Trump-supporting voters who have become resentful: ending the war, focusing on cost of living and inflation, adopting an 'America First' approach, and changing the nature of our relationship with Israel.

Trump announced in an interview with Fox News on Tuesday that he had reached an agreement with Netanyahu for Washington to stop annual security aid to Israel.

However, it was not immediately clear whether he has the legal authority to halt the billions of dollars in military aid sent annually by Washington to Israel.

Policy toward Israel has emerged as a generational divide in American politics. Polls show younger voters, including some Republicans, feel the country has been overly supportive of Israel and insufficiently supportive of Palestinian residents.

A Shift in Public Mood

Positions in Congress had already begun to change for some time. In September, 46 out of 47 members of the Democratic caucus in the Senate voted for a resolution forcing the Trump administration to report to Congress on escalating settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.

Republicans blocked this measure, but the near-unanimous Democratic vote represented a sharp departure from decades of consistent bipartisan support for Israel.

Democrats are likely to focus again on violence in the West Bank.

Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, who led efforts to attach human rights conditions to aid provided to Israel, said: "We must ensure our laws, international law, and policies are applied uniformly to everyone when it comes to state actions. There should be no exception for Israel."

'Mr. Veto'

Nevertheless, Democratic power remains limited. Trump promised to be 'Mr. Veto,' and it is unlikely they can muster the required two-thirds majority to override a presidential veto if Trump refuses to sign their bills.

However, there may be enough resistance to sending taxpayer money abroad and anger over the war with Iran, pushing the 'America First' wing of the Republican Party to resist as well.

Bryce Floyd, a former US official and senior advisor at Argyle Strategy, a London-based strategic consultancy, said election results could lead to "unexpected alliances between left and right in condemning Israel."

The majority also means Democrats can summon administration officials to public hearings, which was rare under Trump's Republican colleagues' control.

Making Noise

William Wechsler, director of Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council research center, said "What Congress can do is make... a lot of noise. They can threaten to disrupt nominee confirmations. They can ask many questions about various aid agreements and force the president to issue waivers (in case sanctions are lifted)."

Polls showed the war with Iran was among the most important electoral issues. A number of Americans blamed rising prices, especially gasoline, on the conflict started by Trump in February.

Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which advocates a strong US-Israel alliance, said a change in Israeli leadership could alter the "atmosphere" in relations between the two countries.

Netanyahu lost his governing majority in the Israeli elections held on October 27, but denied opponents a clear opportunity to oust him. Negotiations to form a new government are expected to drag on.

Schanzer said a new Israeli government, particularly one with weaker ties to Republicans, might deal more cooperatively with Democrats.

"Nothing will change in the United States until January, when members of Congress take office, and by then, there may be a new Israeli government that will also influence this," Schanzer added.