Will Trump Repeat the Venezuela Scenario in Cuba?

The American magazine "The American Conservative" confirmed that the administration of US President Donald Trump has begun taking political and military steps toward Cuba reminiscent of the method Washington previously used against Venezuela, amid growing indicators that US pressure is moving from the phase of political containment to a more escalatory phase toward Havana.

The magazine stated that the recent US moves are raising increasing concern within political and security circles, especially as the US military buildup in the Caribbean Sea coincides with an intelligence and judicial escalation against the Cuban leadership, at a time when regional and international tensions linked to the Trump administration are widening.

US Military Buildup Near Cuban Coasts

According to the report, Washington deployed the US aircraft carrier "USS Nimitz" to the southern Caribbean Sea as part of what the US Southern Command described as part of the ongoing pressure campaign against the Cuban government.

The report indicated that the carrier is accompanied by F/A-18E Super Hornet fighters and EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft, in addition to a destroyer and other military support ships, in a move the magazine described as having dimensions that go beyond mere traditional military display.

The magazine linked this military deployment to the moves that preceded the US operation against Venezuela, which ended with the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, considering that the current pattern of escalation toward Cuba appears close to the same scenario.

The Drone File Revives the "Security Threat" Narrative

Parallel to the military moves, the report discussed US intelligence leaks reported by the Axios website, which pointed to what Washington described as a "growing threat" resulting from Cuba possessing more than 300 military drones.

According to the leaked information, Cuba obtained these drones from Russia and Iran since 2023, with US allegations that some of them could be used to target the US Guantanamo Bay base, US military ships, or even areas within the state of Florida.

However, the report pointed out that US officials themselves do not believe that Cuba is planning to launch a direct attack on the United States, explaining that the scenario presented is primarily related to a possible defensive response if the island were subjected to a US military attack.

In this context, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel affirmed that his country does not pose a threat to any nation and does not possess any offensive plans against the United States, but it "retains its full and legitimate right to defend itself against any military aggression."

The magazine saw that the US talk about the "Cuban drone threat" reflects an attempt to build a security narrative similar to that previously used to justify pressures, sanctions, and interventions against Washington's adversaries in Latin America.

Accusation of Raúl Castro Reopens the 1990s File

In a parallel escalation, the US Department of Justice reopened the file on the downing of civilian aircraft near the Cuban coasts in 1996, by bringing charges against former Cuban President Raúl Castro related to involvement in the process of shooting down planes belonging to the US organization "Brothers to the Rescue."

The magazine pointed out that the timing of the accusations raised many questions, especially as they coincided with the arrival of the aircraft carrier "Nimitz" to the region, and a few days after statements by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who called on Cuban officials to "draw lessons" from the operation that targeted Venezuelan President Maduro.

The report also quoted Acting US Attorney General Todd Blanche as saying that Raúl Castro "will come to the United States willingly or by other means," a phrase observers considered an indication of the possible use of unconventional means to impose the US decision.

Old US Documents Return to the Forefront

The report explained that the case dates back to the incident of shooting down two planes belonging to the "Brothers to the Rescue" organization in February 1996, an organization led by Cuban opponents in the United States under the guise of humanitarian work to help Cuban migrants.

However, the magazine confirmed that the organization's activity was not limited to rescue operations but also included penetrating Cuban airspace and dropping political leaflets opposing the Cuban government over the capital Havana, in what the Cuban authorities considered a direct violation of national sovereignty.

The report indicated that the Cuban government had sent repeated diplomatic protests to Washington regarding those flights, accompanied by radar data, flight plans, and documents confirming repeated violations of Cuban airspace. Havana also repeatedly warned that the continuation of these flights could lead to the downing of the planes in the future.

According to the magazine, later declassified US documents showed that the administration of former US President Bill Clinton was aware of the seriousness of the situation, and that the US State Department knew that Cuba might actually proceed to shoot down the planes if the air violations continued.

US documents dating back to January 1996 also showed that US authorities at the time described the flights as "flagrant violations," with clear warnings of the possibility of a military confrontation at any moment.

Growing Fears of a New US Front

The magazine saw that the coincidence of the military escalation with political and judicial pressures reflects a shift in the way the Trump administration deals with Cuba, especially in light of escalating global tensions and Washington's desire to tighten pressure on its regional adversaries.

The report added that the scale of the US military buildup in the Caribbean Sea, along with the revival of files dating back three decades, reinforces fears that Cuba is facing a new phase of direct confrontation with the United States.

The magazine concluded by noting that these developments recall previous statements by Trump in which he said that "Cuba is next," a phrase that has begun to be read within US and Latin American political circles as more than just a passing political threat, but rather an indicator of the possibility of Washington moving to a more severe phase in its dealing with the island in the coming period.