Yesterday's Allies Turn: Eisenkot Prepares to Pull Haredim from Netanyahu's Grip

According to the Maariv newspaper, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is struggling to ensure that ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties remain within the right-wing camp, amid concerns inside the Likud party that United Torah Judaism could join Gadi Eisenkot's government if a formula satisfying the rabbis' demands is offered.

The paper reports that veteran ministers and Knesset members within Likud doubt Netanyahu's ability to prevent United Torah Judaism from joining an Eisenkot government should a suitable offer be made to the rabbis. Party officials acknowledge they currently lack real political tools to guarantee the Haredi parties stay in the right-wing bloc.

During talks with Haredi officials, Netanyahu also faced the argument that a conscription settlement reached with Eisenkot might be legally more stable. Maariv noted that Netanyahu warned Eisenkot would not provide the Haredim with a conscription law, to which Haredi officials replied: "The conscription law Eisenkot will present, unlike yours, will not be overturned by the Supreme Court."

Likud circles also fear that the Haredim may not condition Eisenkot on passing a conscription law before forming a government, settling instead for a coalition agreement if one is reached, which could facilitate negotiations between the "Change Bloc" and United Torah Judaism.

Concern within Likud centers on Rabbi Dov Lando, according to Maariv. Party officials believe he has never considered himself bound to the right-wing camp, noting that in the 1980s and 1990s he openly opposed Rabbi Shach's stance on cooperating with the left. They add that his position hasn't changed; today he provides spiritual leadership, and representatives of Degel HaTorah follow his decisions.

Currently, the task of forming a government lies with Eisenkot, amid estimates in Haredi circles that an agreement with the "Change Bloc" could lead to a conscription settlement difficult to challenge legally. According to the paper, while Netanyahu can offer guarantees regarding a future settlement, it remains unclear whether he can form a government capable of implementing it.

Despite contacts, there is no consensus yet within United Torah Judaism on joining an Eisenkot government. Alongside readiness to discuss a conscription settlement, reservations exist about partnering with "Change Bloc" parties, particularly Democrats.

Party officials emphasize any agreement must include commitments on Sabbath issues, kashrut, religious conversion, and maintaining the status quo, while figures from Agudat Yisrael also express reservations about the move.

Likud circles place hopes on these divisions, noting that even if a conscription agreement is reached, there is no guarantee all components of United Torah Judaism will support joining the government. The potential entry of Shas also raises concerns in Netanyahu's circle.

Updated estimates in both the "Change Bloc" and the right suggest Aryeh Deri would be willing to join an Eisenkot government if United Torah Judaism takes the step first, paving the way for him.

In such a scenario, 48 MKs from the Zionist Change Bloc, 7 from United Torah Judaism, and 6 from Shas could form a 61-MK coalition. Likud fears Rabbi Lando's decision could also influence Shas's stance.

Haredi sources estimate that "Deri will find it difficult to stand against the Ashkenazi leadership's decision to join a government regulating the status of yeshiva students."

Conversely, the right warns of the electoral price Deri might pay if he joins an Eisenkot government. A source in the right-wing camp stated: "They want to see Deri enter a left-leaning government headed by Eisenkot, and in the next elections, Shas won't pass the threshold!"

In a related development, Israel Our Home leader Avigdor Lieberman dropped his principled opposition to sitting with Haredi parties but clarified he would not accept a government relying on Arab parties and would demand a conscription settlement.

Lieberman views including United Torah Judaism and Shas as the path to forming a government without Netanyahu. He suggested exploring a formula based on the 2018 draft bill, adapted to IDF manpower needs post-October 7, though he has not yet presented an agreed-upon formula with the Haredim.

Meanwhile, disagreements persist within the "Change Bloc" on several issues, requiring Eisenkot to reconcile Haredi demands with positions held by Lieberman, Naftali Bennett, and Yair Golan on conscription and religion-state matters.

Parallel disputes among bloc leaders concern the identity of the next Knesset Speaker; Lieberman supports appointing Yair Lapid, while Eisenkot does not agree to nominate him at this stage. These conflicts do not determine government formation but reflect the difficulty of reaching understandings even on issues not directly tied to the Haredim.

Another battleground involves attracting defectors from Likud. Lieberman told Maariv: "Once a 61-MK government is formed, it will likely be possible to absorb at least 3 to 4 Likud MKs."

Lieberman's estimates rest on the belief that forming a government without Netanyahu could open the door for additional MKs from his party to defect. However, Likud rejects these assessments, with officials stating that even if Eisenkot or Lieberman attempts to attract defectors, the move will fail.

A Likud official said: "There are those communicating with Lieberman, like David Bitan, but he too won't leave Likud because Bitan is a rooted Likudnik."

At this stage, however, there is no agreement with United Torah Judaism or Shas, and Lieberman's prediction regarding Likud MK defections has not materialized.

According to Maariv, the key to forming an Eisenkot government remains tied to understandings on the conscription law and the Haredi leadership's decision. If United Torah Judaism decides to join the government, it could impact Shas and bring the "Change Bloc" closer to a 61-MK majority; if negotiations fail, Eisenkot must seek another path to form a government.