Goldman Sachs Predicts Oil Flows Through Strait of Hormuz Will Recover to 70%

Goldman Sachs bank has projected that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will recover to approximately 70% of the levels seen before the war. This forecast comes as oil and gas vessels have begun transiting the waterway following the implementation of a temporary US-Iran agreement.

In a note released Wednesday, analysts including Yulia Zhehistkova Grigsby indicated that the return of Gulf exports to levels considered normal by the market could be achieved by increasing Hormuz flows by 13 million barrels per day from current figures.

The analysts added that the expected rise in shipments could be completed by the end of the upcoming month, with Gulf production likely to recover by October.

Before the war, around 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the International Energy Agency.

The global oil market is closely watching navigation through the strait, which connects the Arabian Gulf to international markets, after the US and Iran signed a temporary agreement aimed at ending the US-Israeli conflict and reopening this vital maritime passage.

During the war, crude shipments through the strait dropped to very limited levels as Tehran and Washington imposed a dual blockade that choked most traffic, initially pushing oil prices sharply higher before they later declined.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell below $78 per barrel on Thursday trading, down from a peak exceeding $126 in late April under wartime pressure.

Ship tracking data revealed that a loaded liquefied natural gas tanker and an empty oil products tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz, with market participants monitoring signs of resumed activity in the waterway after the US-Iran agreement.

The tanker Yi Chi, reportedly Chinese-owned, was among vessels transiting the strait—a common practice for ships linked to countries maintaining good relations with Iran. Traffic through the strait remained light except for smaller cargo ships passing early Thursday.

This movement followed US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he had signed an agreement with Iran including the rapid reopening of the strategic maritime corridor. Shipowners, however, sought clarity on the reopening mechanism before deciding to dispatch vessels through the strait.

The Strait of Hormuz had been closed for about four months, restricting access to gas and oil from inside the Arabian Gulf. Only limited shipments passed through vessels that either turned off their transponders to conceal their locations or obtained Tehran’s approval.

During the conflict, regional producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq increased the use of infrastructure bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to maintain critical energy flows to global customers.

Saudi Aramco increased utilization of a pipeline crossing the country to transport crude to the Red Sea coast, and used a pipeline to the port of Fujairah outside Hormuz. Iraq also shipped oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

Goldman Sachs analysts estimated current visible flows through Hormuz at about 1.3 million barrels per day, plus 1.6 million barrels per day from the Gulf of Oman potentially linked to untracked transit operations. Additionally, 7.5 million barrels per day pass through the ports of Yanbu, Fujairah, and Ceyhan.

The bank does not consider vessel availability a constraint on flow recovery, citing about 860 million barrels of empty tanker capacity in the strait or within a navigation range of no more than five days. Nonetheless, some shipowners may remain hesitant to send vessels through the passage.