Manchester City Face Chelsea in FA Cup Final with History on Their Side

Manchester City enter the FA Cup final against Chelsea on Saturday as heavy favorites, standing one victory away from securing a domestic double. The match at Wembley offers Pep Guardiola's side a chance to erase the memory of losing the last two finals in this competition.

A Fourth Consecutive Final

City have already etched their name in the record books as the first club to reach four straight FA Cup finals, according to stats network Opta. After beating Manchester United in 2023, they fell to United and Crystal Palace in the subsequent two showpieces. Ironically, Chelsea are the only team to have lost the final in three consecutive seasons, doing so between 2020 and 2022.

Having already won the English League Cup against Arsenal, City could become the sixth team to achieve the domestic cup double in a single season. The list includes Arsenal (1992-1993), Liverpool (2000-2001 and 2021-2022), and Chelsea (2006-2007 and 2018-2019).

Chelsea's Wembley Woes

This marks Chelsea's 17th FA Cup final appearance, the third-most behind Manchester United (22) and Arsenal (21). The London club has won eight and lost eight, but recent finals at Wembley have been a struggle. They have failed to score in their last four finals at the stadium, a drought stretching back to Christian Pulisic's fifth-minute goal against Arsenal in 2020, a match they lost 2-1.

Since the 2016-2017 season, City and Chelsea top the charts for most FA Cup wins (45 and 37 respectively), most goals scored (159 for City, 111 for Chelsea), and most clean sheets (28 for City, 26 for Chelsea). However, four of Chelsea's five wins this season came against non-Premier League opposition, with the exception being a semi-final victory over Leeds United. The Blues have not beaten two top-flight teams in the competition in a single season since 2020-2021, when one of them was City in the semi-final.

Key Players: Fernandez and Doku

Chelsea's hopes rest heavily on Enzo Fernandez, who has contributed to six goals in nine FA Cup appearances (four goals, two assists), including the winner in the semi-final against Leeds. No Chelsea player has scored in both the semi-final and final since Didier Drogba and Ramires did so in the 2011-2012 season.

City counter with Jeremy Doku, who leads all players in goal involvements in the FA Cup over the past two seasons with three goals and five assists. The Belgian's five assists and 40 dribbles are the most of any Premier League player in that period.

Doku may need to shoulder more of the attacking burden, as Erling Haaland has played in nine finals and taken 15 shots without scoring for City, including the Community Shield. The Norwegian's last goal in a final came for Borussia Dortmund against Leipzig in the 2021 German Cup. Wembley is the only stadium where Haaland has played more than twice for City without scoring (eight matches, 601 minutes, 11 shots).

City's Dominant Run

Since losing the 2020-2021 Champions League final to a Thomas Tuchel-led Chelsea, City have not lost any of their last 13 matches against the Blues across all competitions (10 wins, three draws). This is City's longest unbeaten run against Chelsea, and Chelsea's longest winless streak against any opponent since a 17-match drought without a win against Arsenal between January 1999 and March 2004.

Guardiola's team beat Chelsea 3-0 at Stamford Bridge in their last Premier League meeting last month, though interim manager Callum McFarland secured a 1-1 draw at the Etihad on January 4. Wembley has become a familiar venue for these two sides; this will be their seventh meeting at the stadium, a fixture only surpassed by Chelsea vs. Manchester United (nine times).

According to Opta's supercomputer simulations, City are the overwhelming favorites to win in regular time with a 57.6% probability across 10,000 pre-match simulations. Chelsea's chance of victory stands at just 20.6%, while the likelihood of a draw leading to extra time and penalties is estimated at 21.8%.