El Niño This Year May Become the Strongest on Record, Expert Warns

El Niño leads to elevated surface water temperatures in the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean, triggering global shifts in wind patterns, atmospheric pressure, and rainfall distribution.

This climatic event occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts between nine and twelve months. It can result in droughts in some regions and flooding in others.

This year's El Niño phenomenon is unprecedented in over three decades. Forecast models suggest it may reach an "extreme intensity" level, according to Tim Stockdale, an expert on the phenomenon at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

During a press conference, Stockdale stated, "I think it is entirely accurate to say that we have never seen El Niño forecasts with this level of strength and consistency across prediction models."

He added that it would be a "very big surprise" if this climatic event does not break existing records, further noting, "I expect it to break the records."

El Niño usually peaks between November and February, with temperature increases typically occurring later in the season.

The last El Niño event contributed to making 2023 the second hottest year ever recorded, while 2024 registered the highest average temperature in history.

Floods, Droughts, and Wildfires Linked to El Niño

The U.S. National Weather Service announced last month that El Niño has already begun and is likely to be strong.

Last week, the World Meteorological Organization forecasted a rapid intensification of El Niño between July and September.

United Nations agencies responsible for food assistance issued a funding appeal last month to implement preventive measures against El Niño's impacts.

In India, agricultural officials declared plans to develop emergency strategies to support farmers in coping with potential rainfall reductions associated with the phenomenon.

Many parts of Asia experience drier-than-usual weather during years when El Niño occurs.

El Niño can weaken the monsoon winds over South Asia, depriving India and other areas of the Indian subcontinent of vital rainfall needed to sustain hundreds of millions of people.

The phenomenon also raises the likelihood of droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires in Australia, where warmer-than-normal climatic conditions dominate.

El Niño is often linked to increased rainfall in some parts of the Horn of Africa.

However, vast areas of southern, western, central, and eastern Africa generally face drier-than-normal conditions during El Niño years.

Parts of western South America, including the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, typically receive above-average rainfall during strong El Niño events, increasing the risk of floods and landslides.

Conversely, the climatic phenomenon is associated with drier-than-usual conditions in northern Brazil, heightening the risk of wildfires in the Amazon region.