7 States to Decide Control of the US Senate in Midterm Elections

Attention is focused on seven US states whose results are expected to decide the future of control over the Senate, amid fierce competition between the Republican and Democratic parties, less than two weeks before the midterm elections, which could redraw the balance of power in Congress during the final two years of President Donald Trump's term.

The American newspaper "The Washington Post" reported that opinion polls indicate a limited lead for Democrats in the seven states, although Trump won six of them in the 2024 presidential election, including five states by margins exceeding 10 percentage points.

While Democrats appear closest to regaining control of the House of Representatives, the competition for the Senate remains open to multiple possibilities, with approval ratings converging between candidates and election spending reaching record levels.

Democrats need to win four additional seats to regain the majority in the Senate, which is currently controlled by Republicans with 53 seats against 47.

Estimates suggest that Democrats have a clear lead in North Carolina, where former Governor Roy Cooper is running against Republican Michael Whatley for an open seat.

However, the fate of the majority may be determined in: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, states whose races are classified by the non-partisan "Cook Political Report" as difficult to predict.

According to the newspaper, if Democrats win the seven states, along with the seats where they are leading, it could give them their largest Senate majority since the administration of former President Barack Obama, while Republicans would maintain their current majority if they manage to win all these races.

Texas and Ohio.. Election Battles Worth Hundreds of Millions
Texas and Ohio stand out as among the most polarizing states for election spending, as Republicans attempt to hold onto their seats against limited polling leads for Democratic candidates.

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by three percentage points, although Trump won the state by a 14-point margin in the last presidential election.

The race has turned into a political test for Republicans after Trump backed Paxton in the primaries against Senator John Cornyn, despite warnings within the party about the possibility of losing the seat.

Republicans enjoy a spending advantage of approximately $159.1 million in the state, after billionaire Elon Musk donated $158 million in September to a political committee supporting Republicans, before transferring the amount to a group backing Paxton.

But Talarico benefited from launching his advertising campaign early, focusing his attacks on his opponent's past legal issues, while Paxton criticized the Democratic candidate's positions on climate and meat consumption.

In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown seeks to return to the Senate after losing in the 2024 elections, facing off against Republican Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.

Polls show Brown leading by four percentage points, despite Trump winning the state by an 11-point margin in the recent presidential election.

The value of scheduled election ads in Ohio, during the period from Labor Day to Election Day, exceeded $360 million, according to data from "Ad Impact," making it the highest among Senate races nationwide.

Republicans have a spending advantage of $71 million, while Brown focuses his campaign on criticizing Husted's support for data centers, in contrast to Republican accusations that their opponent spent nearly five decades in elected office.

Michigan and Maine.. A Test of Both Parties' Ability to Hold Their Seats
In Michigan, Republicans seek an electoral breakthrough in a state that has not elected a Republican senator since 1994.

Former Republican Representative Mike Rogers faces Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who won a primary marked by divisions within his party.

Polls indicate that Abdul El-Sayed leads by four percentage points, although Trump won Michigan by a one-point margin in the 2024 elections.

But the Democratic candidate faces challenges within his party due to his critical stance toward Israel and controversial statements made following an attack targeting a synagogue in the state.

"The Washington Post" quoted Democratic strategists saying the party feels relatively more confident about its chances of winning in Michigan, based on opinion polls and early voting indicators.

In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins is fighting to retain her seat for a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson, the former president of the state senate.

Jackson leads by two percentage points in polls, but the experience of the 2020 election pushes both parties to treat these results with caution, after Collins managed to win by a 9-point margin at that time despite her opponent's lead in earlier polls.

The competition gains special significance because Collins is the only Republican senator representing a state that voted for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the last presidential election.

Democrats had faced turmoil in selecting their candidate, after Governor Janet Mills withdrew from the primary race, followed by Graham Platner's withdrawal in July following sexual assault allegations he denied, before the party united behind Jackson.

Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas.. Democrats Test Republican Strongholds
The three states represent a test of Democrats' ability to achieve gains in areas historically leaning Republican.

In Alaska, former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by five percentage points, as Sullivan seeks to win a third term.

The state was affected by rising diesel prices linked to the war with Iran, alongside cost-of-living pressures, making economic issues a central focus of the competition.

The race became more complicated with the entry of a third candidate bearing a name similar to the Republican senator, Daniel Sullivan Jr., which sparked Republican accusations of attempting to confuse voters, claims the independent candidate denied.

In Iowa, Democratic Representative Josh Turek leads Republican Ashley Hinson by two percentage points, in a race for an open seat in a state Trump won by a 13-point margin in 2024.

Both candidates focused on demonstrating their ability to work with the other party, despite exchanging criticisms regarding legislative records and personal financial situations.

Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, is witnessing an unexpected competition between Republican Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton, who leads by one percentage point in polls.

Hamilton, a pastor leading the largest church in the state, benefited from his campaign's superiority in fundraising, while Republicans question his presentation as a moderate candidate, citing his past positions on immigration and social justice issues.

Massive Election Spending and Hard-to-Predict Results
Total advertising spending in the seven swing-state races reached approximately $1.6 billion, according to an analysis conducted by "The Washington Post" of "Ad Impact" data through October 27, without accounting for independent group spending in the chart relied upon by the report.

Despite Republicans' financial superiority in most of these races, Democrats enjoy a spending advantage in Iowa and Kansas, while polls show them leading in all seven states by margins ranging from one to five percentage points.

However, most of these margins fall within the statistical error range, making the final outcomes undecided.

The list of seven states does not include New Hampshire, where Democrat Chris Pappas leads in polls, or Georgia, where Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is favored to win against Republican Mike Collins.

The newspaper believes that the results of these confrontations will determine Trump's ability to implement his legislative agenda during the second half of his term, as a shift of the majority to Democrats would change voting dynamics within the Senate, while Republican retention of control would allow them to maintain their dominance in the chamber.

With the election date approaching, the seven states remain the main battleground between the two parties, in elections where results may be decided by slim margins despite billions of dollars spent on campaigns.