Decisive Tuesday Approaches: Israel Fears Iranian Move That Could Upend Trump's Plans

Israeli security institutions have declared maximum alert status ahead of the US congressional midterm elections, amid two main scenarios facing the army on a single front.

According to what Hebrew site "Walla" reported today, Monday, citing security sources, Israel is awaiting the possibility of the United States launching a preemptive strike against Iran, or an unexpected Iranian attack on American interests in the region, including Tel Aviv.

The current focus is on Washington's fears of a planned surprise Iranian attack, either directly or through militias and proxies across the Middle East, against American interests and assets.

American and Israeli intelligence agencies are concerned that Tehran may attempt to cause a large-scale military provocation that directly affects the American electoral process and political map.

The Parallel Scenario
In contrast, a parallel scenario is based on US intelligence monitoring unusual and advanced preparations by the Revolutionary Guard to launch an immediate attack, which could place the White House before a decisive decision regarding addressing the strike preemptively.

Amid rising tensions, the Israeli army conducted a long series of defensive and offensive preparations in recent weeks, in close coordination with the US Central Command and the Department of Defense (the Pentagon).

According to "Walla," Israeli security officials clarified that coordination reached the highest levels, confirming that if Americans decide to surprise the Iranians and attack them, Israel will receive prior warning to complete its defensive and offensive preparations.

Despite this, elements in the defense establishment estimate that the likelihood of the United States launching a preemptive attack before the midterm elections is very low, as the assessment indicates that US President Donald Trump prefers at this stage to exhaust the negotiation process and diplomatic pressure on the regime in Tehran.

Tuesday of Possibilities
But the Israeli army confirms it leaves no room for risk, given regional instability and growing fears of being subjected to a surprise Iranian attack for the third time, after operations in June 2025 and February of this year. Accordingly, the army kept its readiness at maximum levels, with expectations of escalation as Tuesday approaches.

Amid these tensions, more than 3,000 American soldiers are stationed in Israel, but no unusual increase was observed in the number of American planes arriving in Israel during the past week, unlike estimates recorded before previous rounds of fighting that included an increase in refueling aircraft presence, according to "Walla."

The defense establishment estimates that Trump prefers to avoid launching a preemptive attack before the elections, however, monitoring Iranian preparations for a surprise attack could change the situation and push the White House to consider early military action.