The $70 Million Bet: Israeli Prime Minister Race Ignites Prediction Market

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu topped trader bets on the prediction platform "Polymarket" regarding the identity of the next head of government, despite exit poll results that did not grant his camp a clear majority, marking a notable shift in estimates following the publication of preliminary results, according to i24NEWS.

According to platform data on Wednesday evening, the probability of Netanyahu winning the premiership stood at 48%, compared to 33.5% for former Israeli Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, while Naftali Bennett came third with 7%, followed by Avigdor Lieberman with 2.7%.

The trading volume in the prediction market concerning the identity of the next prime minister exceeded $70.8 million, while the trading volume related to the likelihood of Netanyahu taking office surpassed $23.1 million.

Platform charts showed sharp fluctuations in trader estimates during the election campaign, as Eisenkot overtook Netanyahu at certain stages, before expectations changed significantly as the election date approached and after exit polls were published.

The percentages displayed on "Polymarket" do not represent a public opinion poll, but rather reflect the prices of contracts bought and sold by traders, indicating their estimated probabilities of specific political scenarios occurring. Therefore, these figures may change rapidly depending on political developments and trading activity.

Netanyahu's lead on the platform comes at a time when exit polls showed that the Likud party remains the largest, but his camp failed to reach the threshold of 61 seats required to form a parliamentary majority in most of those polls.

While exit polls have not settled the chances of forming a government, trader bets on the platform reflect a different assessment of the negotiation path and political probabilities that may determine the identity of the next prime minister.