The Fragile Majority Trap: Opposition Rifts Threaten Eisenkot and Hand Netanyahu an Opportunity

The opposition bloc in Israel, led by Gadi Eisenkot, faces widening disagreements and divergences, despite the recommendation of all opposition parties, including Arab parties, for Eisenkot to form the next government during consultations held by Israeli President Isaac Herzog regarding the nomination of the person tasked with forming the government.

These meetings resulted in a recommendation from 67 Knesset members representing opposition parties and Arab parties for Eisenkot to form the next government, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received recommendations from only 46 seats, after the ultra-Orthodox "United Torah Judaism" party, a partner in the current governing coalition, abstained from recommending any candidate.

The Israeli President is expected to announce on Sunday the granting of the mandate to form a government to Eisenkot, but there are obstacles that could hinder this step due to differing positions with his partners, particularly Avigdor Lieberman, head of the "Yisrael Beiteinu" party.

Eisenkot prefers going to the Knesset with a government based on the current map, relying solely on the 48 seats of the Jewish opposition coalition with guarantees that Arab parties will abstain from voting, which would mean passing the government, as the opposition bloc led by Netanyahu would then stand at 46 seats, meaning it loses its ability to pass a vote of no confidence against Eisenkot's government.

This position aligns with what Arab parties have announced, stating they will form a "safety net" for the opposition government without being part of it, reducing the complexity of the task facing Eisenkot, as the role of Arab parties will be limited to preventing the collapse of Eisenkot's government.

However, Lieberman firmly rejects this step, having repeatedly affirmed that he will not accept being part of a government supported by Arab parties, going further by threatening to vote against such a government.

Lieberman prefers another option, namely relying on the ultra-Orthodox parties "Shas" and "United Torah Judaism" to form a purely Jewish government; these ultra-Orthodox parties hold 13 seats, which would raise the opposition bloc's tally to 61 seats without relying on Arab parties.

Lieberman will push for this option after announcing the lifting of the "veto" on insisting on mandatory conscription for all Israelis, a core issue for ultra-Orthodox parties who demand exemption for their sons from military service, although Eisenkot has confirmed his insistence on the necessity of mandating conscription for all Israelis.

The newspaper "Maariv" states: "Despite Eisenkot's numerical superiority in obtaining party recommendations for his mandate, a precise analytical examination of the structure of these recommendations reveals a critical parliamentary dilemma facing Eisenkot."

It adds: "Lieberman's announcement that his party will vote against a minority government relying on the abstention of Arab parties from voting constituted a major obstacle for Eisenkot even before he was tasked with forming the government."

It points out that Eisenkot faces two main options: either a government of 61 members including the "Shas" party and the "United Torah Judaism" party, or a minority government formed as a result of the abstention of Arab parties from voting.

In both options, he relies on parties that have not committed to supporting the government he heads, and on partners who nominated him but have not committed to accepting any plan he proposes, adding: "These recommendations brought him closer to obtaining the mandate, but they did not resolve any of the disputes that will determine his success in forming the government."

It says: "In this path, Eisenkot may place his partners before the choice of voting against a government he heads, thereby keeping Netanyahu in power, and Naftali Bennett and Lieberman may prefer this option over a government whose existence depends on the abstention of Arab parties from voting."

The newspaper adds: "Eisenkot risks public failure, but this vote will oblige Bennett and Lieberman to publicly decide their stance on preventing the formation of a government headed by the candidate they nominated, and they will have to justify their refusal to form a government that ends Netanyahu's term before their voters, and the political price may be heavy, especially if they have no alternative to him."

It adds: "Here lies the advantage of Bennett and Lieberman in nominating Eisenkot without setting any preconditions; if he succeeds in forming the government, they are expected to be key partners in it, whereas if he fails, they can claim that they gave him a full opportunity, thus not bearing responsibility for the failure."

It says: "His failure may strengthen their position as candidates to lead another attempt to form a government, even if the mandate does not automatically transfer to either of them; they can leave Eisenkot to deal with the contradictions within the bloc first, without entering directly into a struggle for the mandate."

Eisenkot said on Friday evening, in an implicit attack on Lieberman: "This is a moment of testing leadership and patriotism in all its meanings; anyone who tries to sabotage and obstruct the formation of the government for personal reasons unrelated to the matter will be remembered in history as someone who did not rise to the level of responsibility and did not intervene to save Israel in a time of crisis, and this will not be forgiven."

Eisenkot added: "Israel today is in the midst of a dangerous political tsunami. On this basis, I have, in recent days, together with my partners, promoted a plan to form a national emergency government, based on the four Zionist parties for change and reform, and the joining of every party and every Knesset member who agrees with my four basic principles."

According to Eisenkot, "the continuation of a caretaker prime minister in a minority government that has largely lost the trust of the people, managing the security system and law enforcement agencies, is a dangerous situation that should not continue even for one day."