The Ghost of a Nuclear Attack Confuses Tehran: Exceptional Measures to Protect Civilians from Escalation

Iran has begun preparations for the scenario of facing an American nuclear attack, amid growing speculation about the possibility of Washington resorting to this option to strike fortified nuclear facilities.

A report published by Newsweek magazine highlighted Iranian emergency measures and the repercussions of any potential nuclear escalation.

These speculations intensified following statements by conservative media personality Tucker Carlson, who said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressured US President Donald Trump to consider using nuclear weapons to penetrate the fortified "Pickaxe" mountain in Isfahan province, where Iran is suspected of resuming uranium enrichment activities underneath.

However, Trump ruled out this option, confirming in statements to Politico that he does not need to use nuclear weapons against Iran.

Despite this, the erratic American approach and repeated threats to Tehran have kept the possibilities of escalation open, especially with the failure to achieve a clear victory in the confrontation.

In this context, Iranian authorities began directing guidance to citizens on how to deal with a potential nuclear attack, a step reflecting Tehran's readiness for the worst-case scenarios, despite ruling out such an attack occurring at present.

Guidelines to Face Radioactive Contamination
The Iranian News Agency published a report on October 28 containing recommendations provided by representatives of the Red Crescent in Isfahan and emergency teams regarding shelter procedures and avoiding exposure to radioactive contamination in the event of a nuclear attack.

The report came within the framework of the annual Passive Defense Week events and was accompanied by a video clip addressing the potential effects of a tactical nuclear bomb explosion with a yield of 15 kilotons underground. The "Pickaxe" mountain is located within the Karkas Mountains range, approximately one mile south of the Natanz nuclear complex.

The National Organization for Passive Defense is responsible for countering chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats; it is an institution affiliated with the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, led by Revolutionary Guard Brigadier General Gholam Reza Jalali for more than 20 years.

In this regard, Iranian security analyst Ali Reza Taghavi Nia stated that his country's preparations to face these threats date back to the Iran-Iraq War between 1980 and 1988.

He added that Iranian military institutions possess specialized units for confronting chemical, microbial, and radiological attacks, noting that the experience of the long war gave Tehran expertise in dealing with this type of threat.

Potential Change in Nuclear Doctrine
Although the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa during the 1990s prohibiting the development of weapons of mass destruction, Iran continued to expand its nuclear program amidst international accusations regarding its secret activities revealed at the beginning of the new millennium.

The killing of Khamenei during the war launched by the United States and Israel in late February reignited the debate over the future of Iranian nuclear policy, especially with rising internal calls to review the position rejecting the possession of nuclear weapons.

These discussions are no longer limited to expert circles and officials; recently, they have been addressed by officials and public figures, including Secretary of the Supreme Council of National Security Mohsen Rezaei and Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei.

In this respect, Taghavi Nia said that the majority of Iranians now demand the production of nuclear weapons after the recent war, warning that if his country faces an American or Israeli nuclear attack, it will undoubtedly lead them to test their own nuclear bomb.

He indicated that Iran possesses the necessary scientific and technical capabilities to develop a nuclear weapon, but Shia jurisprudential considerations have prevented taking this step so far. However, he warned of the possibility of this stance changing if the survival of the Iranian regime becomes threatened.

The final word in this file remains with the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who may adopt, according to Taghavi Nia, a different position from his father, having considered that the United States and Israel did not adhere to any red lines in their dealings with Iran.

Repercussions Beyond Iranian Borders
Conversely, questions arise regarding the nature of the nuclear weapons Washington might use, as the American arsenal includes B61 bombs with explosive yields ranging from 0.3 to 50 kilotons, in addition to the newer model B61-13, which reaches a yield of 360 kilotons.

The power of this model equals approximately 24 times the bomb dropped by the United States on the Japanese city of Hiroshima during World War II. Washington remains the only country to have used nuclear weapons in actual warfare to date.

Irene Dombakh, a researcher in nuclear security affairs at the Council on Foreign Relations, warned of the difficulty in estimating the full scale of repercussions of any nuclear attack, given that these weapons have not been used in wars since 1945.

She explained that the extent of destruction would depend on the bomb's yield, the method of detonation, weather conditions, wind direction, as well as the depth of the explosion. She also noted that a surface burst could lead to the spread of larger quantities of radioactive materials compared to an airburst.

She cited a study by the American National Academies published in 2005, which estimated that the number of casualties in sparsely populated remote areas could range from hundreds to hundreds of thousands, depending on the weapon's yield and weather conditions.

She pointed out that Iran had conducted previous drills for dealing with radiation accidents, including maneuvers near the Bushehr nuclear plant in 2019, as well as measures taken by authorities after strikes targeting facilities containing nuclear materials during 2025.

Additionally, authorities in Alborz province organized a training exercise on Tuesday in cooperation with the Iranian Red Crescent and the University of Tehran to enhance the ability to detect and handle chemical, biological, nuclear, and radiological risks.

Nevertheless, the repercussions of any American nuclear strike will not stop at Iran's borders but may extend to regional countries and neighboring American allies, in addition to political and strategic implications for Washington.

In this context, Dombakh warned that using a nuclear weapon against Iran would constitute a violation of international prohibitions that the United States helped establish, emphasizing that the world may face radiological and material consequences inside Iran, in exchange for serious political repercussions for the United States if it decides to break the global ban on the use of nuclear weapons.