"In the Name of the People": Is Iran's Revolutionary Guard Paving the Way for a Nuclear Doctrine Shift?

The call to possess a nuclear bomb in Iran is no longer merely a stance adopted by hardline figures; it has transformed into an escalating political and media campaign seeking to present atomic weaponry as a popular demand. This development reflects widening debate within regime institutions regarding abandoning the doctrine that has governed the nuclear program for decades.

Reports published by Iranian and Western media in recent days reveal that demands for a bomb have moved from parliamentary statements to Friday prayer pulpits, conservative newspapers, and platforms linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This coincides with pressures to reconsider the fatwa issued by former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei prohibiting nuclear weapons.

These moves come after the war with the United States and Israel, amid growing debate over whether Iran's missile arsenal alone can prevent new attacks, and whether possessing a nuclear weapon would alter the deterrence equation.

Manufacturing Popular Demand

On October 28, "Iran International" revealed that Fars News Agency, linked to the IRGC, published a clip featuring interviews with Iranian citizens demanding possession of a nuclear bomb. The segment was titled with a question asking why the United States and Israel possess atomic weapons while Iran is deprived of them.

The significance of this step lies in attempting to shift the issue from a discussion among military and political officials to a demand attributed to Iranian society, although the selected interviews do not constitute scientific evidence of public opinion trends.

This trend was reinforced by remarks from Tehran's interim Friday prayer leader, Mohammad Javad Haj Ali Akbari, who considered calls to review the nuclear doctrine an expression of national awareness rather than merely an emotional reaction.

He also cited polls indicating that more than 70% of Iranians support reviewing the doctrine, without providing details allowing verification of their methodology or representativeness of society.

MP Mohammad Taghi Naghd Ali stated that the slogan of some pro-regime gatherings had shifted from demanding nuclear energy to demanding a nuclear warhead.

Khamenei's Fatwa Under Test

The current debate goes beyond the issue of possessing nuclear technology to reviewing the religious and political foundation upon which Tehran long relied to deny its intention to produce atomic weapons.

MP Ahmad Naderi called for reconsidering the previous fatwa, hinting at the possibility that the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei might adopt a different stance from his father.

In the same vein, cleric Ahmad Alam al-Hoda argued that possessing necessary means of deterrence, including nuclear weapons, could become a religious duty if security circumstances require it.

Meanwhile, the newspaper "Khorasan," close to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, went so far as to say that modifying the nuclear doctrine does not necessarily contradict the orientations of the late Supreme Leader.

The conservative "Vatan Emrooz" openly called for manufacturing the bomb, arguing that US and Israeli strikes demonstrated the limitations of traditional deterrence.

These positions reveal an attempt to reinterpret the previous religious stance in a way that allows changing nuclear policy without presenting it as a break with Khamenei's legacy.

Choice Between the Bomb and Nuclear Threshold

Not all Iranian institutions supporting strengthened deterrence immediately adopt the option of manufacturing a bomb. Tasnim News Agency, close to the IRGC, proposed a vision based on deepening nuclear capabilities without announcing an official change in doctrine, by retaining advanced enrichment potentials while refraining from producing actual weapons.

This proposal approaches the concept of a "nuclear threshold state," which possesses advanced technical capabilities that can shorten the time required to develop a weapon, without having made a decision to manufacture one.

However, possessing highly enriched uranium does not automatically mean possessing a usable bomb, as this requires additional technical stages. Meanwhile, the status of Iranian facilities and stockpiles after military strikes remains a decisive factor in assessing actual capabilities.

Reuters reported in March, citing high-ranking Iranian sources, that calls were rising within the ruling establishment to change nuclear policy, while confirming at the time that no decision had been taken to produce a weapon.

Division Within the System

Conversely, warnings emerged against turning the media campaign into pressure on decision-makers. The "Noor News" platform, close to the Supreme National Security Council, warned against reducing a complex strategic issue to mass slogans, emphasizing the need to subject options to specialized evaluation away from emotions.

Moderate conservative site "Asr-e Iran" criticized exploiting the issue for political mobilization, warning that calls to manufacture a bomb could give Tehran's opponents additional justifications to expand confrontation.

Reform Front spokesperson Javad Imam also considered that changing the nuclear doctrine relates to the country's future, economy, and security, and should not be settled through rallies and slogans.

On October 31, Secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security Mohsen Rezaei confirmed that no official decision had been taken to modify the nuclear doctrine, despite acknowledging increasing demands for its review.

These positions place Iran before a question that transcends the possession of the bomb itself: Is the ruling establishment using rising declared popular demands as a bargaining chip, or is the country actually witnessing the beginning of a strategic shift in the concept of deterrence?

While Tehran has not officially announced a change in its policy, the transfer of the debate to religious, media, and security institutions indicates that the military nuclear option has become more present in Iranian political discourse, after being surrounded by religious and diplomatic constraints for decades.