Intelligence Estimates Favor 'Explosion' as Israel Prepares for Deep Iranian Targeting

Israel's Maariv newspaper revealed Israeli intelligence estimates indicating that internal upheaval in Iran may be imminent, noting a rise in operational readiness and field preparedness alongside a fundamental shift in Tel Aviv's security doctrine.

The analysis explained that the primary strategic mission currently assigned to Israel's external intelligence agency, the Mossad, and its military intelligence branch, Aman, now centers on completing a scenario to overthrow the Iranian regime by exploiting Tehran's internal vulnerabilities and leveraging direct intelligence pressure tools.

The analysis noted that although the exact proximity of this possibility remains unclear, prevailing assessments indicate it is closer than before; moreover, the Israeli military fully recognizes Iran as its central threat and top priority at present.

Raising Readiness

The newspaper stated that with the approach of the Yom Kippur holiday, the Israeli military has raised its level of preparedness across all fronts, despite the absence of concrete warnings at this time.

It clarified that in the north, preparations are underway for a possible resumption of Hezbollah rocket fire, targeted assassinations continue in the Gaza Strip, and attention is intensifying toward the Houthis, while Iran remains the focal point of the entire situation.

The paper said: "To grasp the seriousness with which the military views the situation, it suffices to examine the details announced over the weekend regarding the elevation of readiness and alert status across all fronts ahead of Yom Kippur."

This coincides with key military leaders being stationed at their posts, alongside the Air Force ensuring its readiness by keeping an increasing number of armed aircraft on high alert throughout the holiday period.

The newspaper noted that the security establishment entered a state of enhanced operational readiness upon the arrival of Yom Kippur; the dual shockwaves from the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the October 7, 2023 massacre remain deeply etched in the collective memory of the security community.

Currently, a range of potential scenarios are under study, noting that even late Saturday, no intelligence information indicated any intention among the active parties across the seven battlefronts to confront Israeli military forces.

U.S. President Donald Trump had previously told Israel's Channel 12, just two days earlier, that he possesses "a major decision to make regarding Iran," according to his words.

During his interview, Trump asked: "Do I want to go in and eliminate them—that is, the Iranian regime—or not? It’s a big decision. Everything is on the table with me."

Houthi Capabilities

The Israeli analysis addressed Yemen by stating that global attention is now focused on the Houthis; Israel has devoted significant efforts over the past year and a half—or possibly two years—to monitoring their situation.

It pointed out that within the intelligence community, the Houthis have become a top-tier target. The intelligence gathering efforts by the military intelligence unit Aman and the Mossad have yielded tangible and significant results.

It should be noted that both the international community and Israel initially did not take the Houthis seriously. However, after three years of threats and hostile actions involving the Houthis—whether directed against Israel or other Middle Eastern countries—the intelligence community now clearly recognizes the importance the Houthis represent in the intelligence landscape.

Shifting Perspectives

Maariv emphasized that Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and their control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—combined with the understanding that their operations are directed, and even directly orchestrated by Iran, with the aim of destabilizing the global order and harming the international economy—have driven a transformation in perceptions and discourse among senior political and security officials across Europe, the Middle East, the Arab world, and even Asia.

The newspaper affirmed that the world is beginning to recognize the extent of the danger posed primarily by Iran, as well as the Houthis; they are no longer merely a minor proxy lacking professionalism whose missiles disintegrate in mid-air, but have evolved into a violent and dangerous military force.

The paper highlighted Israel’s success in initiating a series of measures enabling it to monitor the Houthis and take effective operational action against them; Israel has much to contribute in the context of its conflict with the Houthis.

It can be said that Israel, through its intelligence agencies—the Mossad and military intelligence Aman—has contributed to reshaping the global understanding of the nature of the threat posed by the Houthis in Yemen to regional and global stability.

Nevertheless, it must not be overlooked that Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis do not constitute the main focus of Israel’s defense establishment; intelligence and security attention remains overwhelmingly—and still—centered on Iran.