Lebanon Agreement Intensifies Rubio-Vance Rivalry for Trump’s Successor

An Israeli newspaper assessed that the political framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon, supervised by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has had a substantial effect on American internal politics.

The Hebrew daily Maariv described the Lebanon agreement as a "valuable strategic achievement for Israel," stating it is considerably stronger than the "bargaining" memorandum between Washington and Tehran, which was overseen by Vice President J.D. Vance.

The newspaper explained that under President Donald Trump’s administration and in preparation for the 2028 election campaign, the Republican Party will face a choice between its leading presidential contenders: Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio. It noted that both figures are leading fundamentally different global visions and international agreements, which practically contradict each other.

On one hand, Vance consistently sought to establish a broad and conciliatory memorandum of understanding with Iran, which included substantial concessions in Lebanon that the newspaper described as nearly tantamount to surrender.

On the other hand, Rubio achieved a clear and decisive diplomatic victory by proposing a "14-point framework agreement," which the newspaper regarded as a "crucial and focused document that does not allow compromise or concessions, protecting Israel’s security and keeping Iran and Hezbollah from exercising any authority in Lebanon, at least theoretically."

The newspaper highlighted that a close examination of the wording of these two agreements reveals the depth of the divide between Vance and Rubio. In the final statement from Rubio’s recent visit to the Gulf states, there was an explicit call to address Iranian ballistic missiles and their proxies, alongside a firm rejection of Iran’s demand for sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and the imposition of fees on it.

It characterized this stance as a strong and resolute message from Rubio to the architects of the agreement with Iran—Steve Witkoff, presidential advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner, and even Vance himself—indicating that "this is not the optimal way to conclude an agreement."

The report clarified that while Iran effectively gained control over Lebanon under Vance’s agreement, Rubio’s framework contains clauses that require these provisions to be imposed on the Iranians and Hezbollah’s deputy secretary general, Naim Qassem.

The agreement signed last Friday explicitly affirms the right of Israel and Lebanon to live in peace and security as two sovereign neighboring states. It enshrines their right to self-defense under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter but unequivocally states that neither may rely on any third party for this purpose without external intervention.

The newspaper asserted that this agreement closes the chapter on Hezbollah’s false narrative of being "Lebanon’s protector" and ends the conspiracy of "Israeli expansionism." It noted that the Lebanese government has effectively signed a document addressing the Iranians, stating: "We are not prepared for your intervention on our behalf, and we call for the disarmament of all armed militias."

Practically, Beirut acknowledges that the presence of the Israeli army in southern Lebanon is solely to protect northern communities, allowing Israel to operate in areas beyond the Lebanese government’s control, according to the newspaper’s description.

It pointed out that the Lebanese signature grants Israel unprecedented diplomatic legitimacy and clear international support to respond to any violations. The Lebanese army will only assume responsibility for the area if Hezbollah disarms in a documented manner. Experimental zones will permit a gradual Israeli withdrawal only in areas fully controlled by Beirut. Until then, Israel will remain in the security zone as a practical guarantee of sovereignty. If Hezbollah does not disband, responsibility and blame will fall on it and its financier in Tehran.

The Israeli newspaper called on Tel Aviv’s political leadership to capitalize on any future violations by Hezbollah to strengthen this achievement on the ground, without intervening in Beirut, in order to avoid provoking President Trump’s anger.