The Day of Economic Decision: Trump Shifts Iran's War to China and Russia

Donald Trump’s strategy to economically isolate Iran has entered a more dangerous phase, after Washington shifted from directly targeting Iran’s economy to threatening punishment against countries, companies, and financial institutions continuing to deal with Tehran.

A report by French newspaper Le Figaro states that the success of this strategy remains dependent on the United States’ ability to close off Chinese and Russian avenues for Iran’s economy.

According to the report, after nearly six months of an inconclusive confrontation with Tehran, Trump is betting on what he described as the most severe economic isolation ever carried out against a country, combining blockade, sanctions, and tightening pressure on nations providing Iran with an economic lifeline.

Trump announced measures to isolate Iran on August 19, warning of "massive economic consequences" for any country allowing its financial institutions, companies, or government bodies to support Tehran. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went further, speaking of a broad economic isolation campaign ultimately aimed at toppling the Iranian regime.

Oil Under Siege

Le Figaro notes that since the start of the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, Washington has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports and ships, which was paused briefly before resuming on July 13.

The effects of this blockade have become clearly visible in Iran’s oil exports. According to the data analytics firm Kpler, Iranian crude exports dropped to around 294,000 barrels per day in August, compared to about 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025.

This has been accompanied by sanctions targeting oil revenues, maritime logistics services, financial networks, and financing and arms supply routes to Iran, in an attempt to drain the resources enabling Tehran to continue its confrontation.

However, the newspaper argues that the main challenge facing Washington lies in the fact that the United States no longer holds the economic monopoly that previously gave its sanctions near-automatic global impact.

China: The Toughest Knot

The report places China at the heart of the test confronting Trump’s strategy, as Beijing has remained Iran’s largest oil partner and one of its most important sources of foreign currency.

Last year, China purchased over 80% of Iran’s exported oil, benefiting from a network involving intermediaries, banks, independent refineries, and ships linked to what is known as the "shadow fleet," allowing part of Iran’s trade to be separated from the Western financial system.

In return, Beijing obtains Iranian oil at discounted prices, making abandoning it an economically and politically costly decision.

Bessent tried to push China into joining the U.S. campaign, noting that Beijing meets nearly half of its energy needs from the Gulf region, so energy stability serves its interests. However, China’s stance was contrary, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stating that sanctions and pressure do not help resolve the issue.

Here lies Washington’s dilemma, according to the paper: while the U.S. administration can increase risks for Iranian oil trade, impose sanctions on Chinese companies involved, and even threaten to cut off financial institutions dealing with Iran from access to the U.S. market, expanding these sanctions also raises the likelihood of direct economic confrontation with the world’s second-largest economy.

Moscow and Tehran: Shared Experience with Sanctions

Russia appears no less significant in U.S. calculations. Iran, having lived under various forms of economic sanctions since the 1979 revolution, has built up over decades networks and mechanisms allowing it to circumvent Western restrictions.

This experience overlaps with Russia, which has faced wide-ranging Western sanctions since the 2022 war in Ukraine, creating, according to Le Figaro, shared interests between Moscow and Tehran.

This convergence is strengthened by the strategic partnership agreement signed between the two countries in 2025, along with their military and technological cooperation.

This does not mean China and Russia are ready to provide Iran with unlimited support or engage militarily alongside it directly, but it makes achieving Washington’s goal of fully isolating Tehran far more complex.

Iranian Economy Under Pressure

The tightening of the blockade comes at a time when Iran’s economy is already struggling, with the impacts of war, sanctions, and disrupted foreign trade evident.

According to figures cited by Le Figaro, inflation is approaching 70%, coinciding with declining purchasing power among Iranians and increasing pressures on exports and commercial infrastructure.

The U.S. bets that combining reduced oil revenues, tightened financial networks, and closed external trade routes will place Tehran under a level of pressure that cannot be sustained over the long term.

Yet Iran’s accumulated ability to circumvent sanctions, along with its ongoing economic channels with China and Russia, means the outcome of this gamble remains uncertain.