Turkish By-Elections Deliver Setback for Opposition Parties

Preliminary results from Turkey's recent local by-elections have disappointed the opposition and its leading party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), as their candidates suffered major defeats, losing five mayoral seats to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

The ruling People's Alliance's victory in these elections reaffirmed the Justice and Development Party's status as Turkey's most popular party, signaling a recovery from its 2024 losses when it ceded control of most major and minor municipalities to the CHP in its first defeat since its founding 25 years ago.

The by-elections, held on Sunday, were conducted to elect mayors in six small towns that were reclassified from villages to towns due to population growth, necessitating local elections.

Election Outcomes and Party Performance

The Justice and Development Party secured mayoral positions in four municipalities: Baghtashi and Yolustu in Tokat province, Mustafa Pasha in Nevşehir province, and Tiki in Gümüşhane province. The Nationalist Movement Party won the mayoralty of Kuschku in Tokat, while the Republican People's Party retained only the Cheverjik municipality in Tokat among the six contested.

A source within the ruling party stated that the AKP prepared extensively for the elections by selecting candidates with strong local popularity and direct community ties to maximize their chances of success. The source told "Iram News" that the party leadership aimed to use these by-elections as a test for their readiness ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for mid-next year or by November at the latest, possibly earlier.

The initial assessment of the election results was positive from the ruling party's perspective, having won four out of six municipalities, with a fifth going to an allied party, and only one lost to the CHP, which had previously won the 2024 local elections including major cities such as Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir.

Political Context and Opposition Challenges

Despite the limited electorate of approximately 10,000 voters in these municipalities, the elections gained significance as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan contacted his supporters in Mustafa Pasha to celebrate the victory publicly before official results were announced.

The elections also drew attention due to the CHP's objections to the results, voiced by its judicially removed leader Özgür Özel and his deputy Gökhan Zeybek. Zeybek highlighted a significant increase in the number of voters compared to about a month prior and criticized the election committees for not considering these objections.

Several other prominent political parties, including the Good Party and the New Welfare Party, participated in the by-elections, adding to the competition and the absence of political alliances ahead of forthcoming presidential and parliamentary elections.

Political parties compete for mayoral and municipal council positions because these roles provide extensive services to residents in neighborhoods, workplaces, and educational institutions, enabling direct engagement with voters and building trust ahead of general elections.

Opposition's Internal Crisis

The CHP seeks to replicate its sweeping 2024 local election victory in an early presidential election it demands to gain power after 24 years of uninterrupted AKP rule since 2002. However, the main opposition party is currently facing an internal crisis following the court's removal of its leader Özel last month and the reinstatement of former party leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. This development has caused a significant split, with Özel's faction blaming the ruling party and Erdoğan for politicizing the judiciary to exclude the CHP from competition, allegations denied by the government, which rejects any interference in judicial affairs.