$1.5 Trillion: Democratic Victory Derails Trump's Defense Budget

President Donald Trump's plan to increase the defense budget to $1.5 trillion faces growing obstacles in Congress after Democrats secured a comfortable majority in both the House and Senate during the midterm elections, expressing broad opposition to the proposed increase and signaling their intent to obstruct any attempts to pass it.

According to a Bloomberg report, the Republicans' electoral defeat dashed remaining hopes for congressional approval of Trump's unprecedented defense budget request amid an unpopular war in the Middle East, which contributed to several Republican losses.

Democrats had already opposed the proposed 44% increase compared to the previous fiscal year, while returning Republicans may not be able to muster the support or political will needed to pass the massive spending package before the new Congress convenes in January.

Democratic Representative Adam Smith, who will chair the House Armed Services Committee, said in a statement following the election: "We must work toward a more realistic and sustainable approach to our national security that does not require a defense budget exceeding $1 trillion, nor funding it through harsh cuts to vital domestic programs."

Democratic resistance threatens several of Trump's key military ambitions, including the "Golden Dome" missile shield project and the plan to build "Trump-class" battleships, and signals negative repercussions for defense industry companies.

Shares of major defense firms, including Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, fell this week as expectations for increased US military spending waned following the midterm election results.

Lawmakers returning to Washington on Monday face two main issues: the annual National Defense Authorization Act and the spending plan for fiscal year 2027, which began on October 1 under a temporary funding measure expiring on December 11, leaving the fate of both measures uncertain.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth justified the administration's request for the FY2027 defense budget increase by stating that the funding would launch much-needed military modernization efforts at a time when autonomous systems are changing the nature of modern warfare.

However, the scale of the increase, along with domestic spending cuts, rising costs of the war on Iran, and expensive projects like the "Trump-class" battleships, angered lawmakers, including some Republicans.

According to a person familiar with the planning, Democrats are likely to approve a defense budget approaching only $1 trillion, given the divergence between the parties on spending levels. The source added that Democrats do not want to appear to endorse continued funding for the war against Iran, but simultaneously seek to provide what the Pentagon actually needs for modernization efforts.

The report noted that Hegseth, responsible for pushing budget-related legislation through Congress, also faces pressure there, with an impeachment vote expected early this week amid rising calls for his dismissal.

Most analysts do not expect the Pentagon to receive the full amount requested by the administration. Travis Sharp, from the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, wrote in a research paper published on November 4 that "the budget Congress ultimately passes will likely fall short of the Trump administration's ambitions."

Todd Harrison, a defense budget analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, described the chances of passing the National Defense Authorization Act as "roughly even," warning that Democratic moves to restrict presidential war powers and target Hegseth could derail the entire process.

Some Democrats, whose negotiating power was strengthened by election results, believe it is necessary to pass another temporary funding measure before the end of the year, delaying long-term laws until the new Congress convenes, where they can use their majorities in both chambers to set priorities for future funding bills.

Democratic Representative Glenn Ivey, a member of the Appropriations Committee, told Bloomberg TV in an interview: "Now that we have such majorities, I don't know if we need a long-term law. I lean more toward a short-term solution."

Similarly, Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, a senior member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said the midterm election results gave Democrats a stronger negotiating position regarding the annual defense authorization bill.

Pentagon officials, including Hegseth and Deputy Secretary Steve Feinberg, intensified communications with Congress before the elections to defend the $1.5 trillion budget request. However, $350 billion of this amount was scheduled to be included in a legislative package passed by party-line votes, outside the normal budget process.

Hegseth said in a video posted on X on November 5, largely defending himself against impeachment efforts: "The Department of Defense must be funded to meet the demands of the current moment. We need the voice of every patriotic member of Congress."

But passing the plan now seems unlikely, as Senate Democrats have already opposed the annual defense authorization bill, and the loss of several previously safe Republican seats in the House will make it difficult to secure the near-full attendance required to pass the bill on party-line votes before Democrats take control of the majority.