After Congress Shifts, Israel Faces Unprecedented US Pressure

According to observers, successive elections in Israel and the United States have marked a pivotal turning point in bilateral relations, after Washington's political and military cover for Tel Aviv became taken for granted.

While loud campaign posters for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remain on public buses in Israel—featuring images of him with US President Donald Trump against a backdrop of warplanes celebrating their joint attacks on Iran—neither leader is currently promoting the state of alliance between the two countries.

A week after inconclusive elections for Netanyahu, Americans overwhelmingly rejected Trump and chose to hand control of both houses of Congress to Democrats who want a stricter approach toward Israel, whether regarding Iran, Gaza, or settler violence in the West Bank.

New Era

Yael Sternhall, an expert on American affairs at Tel Aviv University, stated, "This is a new era. The coincidence of the Gaza war and the war with Iran has truly changed how ordinary Americans, not just those specifically concerned with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, view Israel."

In assessing the reasons for the Republicans' poor performance, US Vice President JD Vance listed four ways to regain voter support, including ending the war with Iran and changing "our relationship with Israel," according to AFP.

Trump did not object; as voting began on Tuesday, he said he had agreed with Netanyahu to end the annual $3.8 billion in US military aid to Israel by the end of this year, explicitly linking this decision to the political climate in the United States.

Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israel's history who served intermittently for nearly two decades, sought Trump's endorsement but also acknowledged his country's growing isolation.

In the final days of the campaign, he suggested that Israel might turn to digital cryptocurrencies to circumvent international sanctions he expected to escalate; Netanyahu did not comment on the US elections or Trump's statements regarding aid.

Journalist Amit Segal, known for his closeness to Netanyahu, wrote that the political situation in the United States constitutes a "disaster" for Israel.

Democratic Hostility

Gadi Eisenkot presented himself as capable of repairing relations between Tel Aviv and Washington, stating that he believes in "liberal values" and wishes to work "closely and constructively" with Trump.

Yair Golan, the main leader of the left-wing current within Eisenkot's bloc, called for Israel to restore a bipartisan approach that Netanyahu destroyed by promoting what he described as a "destructive Israeli narrative of eternal war and authoritarian rule."

Netanyahu boasted during his campaign that he stood up to Democratic presidents, including Barack Obama, who remains a hero to many Democrats. A decade ago, Netanyahu openly aligned with Republicans to attack Obama's diplomacy regarding Iran.

Sternhall says, "Netanyahu certainly provokes the hostility of Democrats, and he has made every possible effort to incite their enmity."

She adds, "But Eisenkot cannot simply be a nicer person to receive a softer approach from this new Congress. He will need new policies."

She believes Eisenkot will likely enjoy support among the Israeli public regarding the suppression of extremist settlers who attack Palestinians in the West Bank without facing any practical punishment.

However, Israel has shifted rightward, with broad initial support for the war in Gaza.

Netanyahu's Bet

Progressive Democrats such as Abdul El-Sayed, the first Muslim elected to the Senate, are joining the new Congress, describing the destruction in Gaza as genocide—a characterization Israel rejects.

Eli Kova, director of policy at the Economic Cooperation Foundation, an Israeli think tank supporting a two-state solution with Palestinians, says, "Netanyahu bet not only on the Republicans, but almost personally on Trump."

He adds, "These results show that this bet has an expiration date. Also, for the first time, I believe there is recognition that it is not just about the Democrats, but that there is a problem in the relationship with the United States."

Ehud Eilam, a former researcher at the Israeli Ministry of Defense, says that without US assistance, Israel still possesses its own large military industry and retains a clear advantage in fighting non-state actors such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

However, he argues that Israel will have to rely more on cheaper artillery or less advanced bombs, increasing the risk of civilian casualties, which has angered international public opinion.

New Strategic Reality

Eilam states, "Israel can adapt to a new strategic reality where it loses much or even all US military aid, but that will be difficult for it. It will force it to consider hard options such as taking out massive loans or raising taxes."

Eisenkot, aware of the political reality in Washington, tries to show that he is interested in regional stability and strategic agreements, not just an "open-ended state of war," according to Eilam.

He adds, "He is certainly presenting a different vision for Israel's relationship with the United States."