How Cuba’s 200,000-strong army shrank to 40,000

Cuba now has far fewer means of defence if the United States decides to move militarily against it, after the Cuban army, once one of the leading forces in the developing world, became what officials and experts described as “just a shadow of what it was” at the height of the Cold War.

That decline comes as the United States sends an aircraft carrier to the Caribbean in a campaign of increasing pressure aimed at changing the communist government in Havana. At the same time, Washington is accusing Cuba of threats ranging from military cooperation with Russia and China to links with groups it designates as terrorist organisations and transnational criminal networks.

Before the Soviet Union collapsed, the Cuban military had more than 200,000 personnel. It now has between 40,000 and 45,000 active-duty troops, divided into three sections responsible for defending the east, west and centre of the country.

From Soviet-backed force to weak fleet

The Cuban air force was once ranked among the best in Latin America, helped by modern Soviet-made MiG fighter jets, while the navy included three Soviet-built frigates. Frank Mora, who served as the top Pentagon official for Latin America during former U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration, said the few warplanes left in the Cuban air force are likely no longer airworthy.

Mora also said the Cuban navy now relies only on small boats operated by coast guard forces. “Cuba had a first-world military inside a third-world country,” he said. “Now, it has no chance against the U.S. military. It is just a shadow of what it was.”

Washington’s pressure campaign

In January, Trump signed an order declaring that Cuba “constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security. He accused Havana’s government of aligning with groups Washington labels terrorist, as well as transnational criminal organisations and strategic rivals of the United States such as Russia and China.

This month, the United States brought murder charges against Raúl Castro, the 94-year-old former Cuban president and one of the most prominent symbols of the Cuban revolution, and imposed new sanctions on military leaders in the country. Axios also reported, citing secret intelligence, that Havana had obtained 300 drones and was working on plans to use them against the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo or even against Key West, Florida, if Cuba came under attack.

Havana’s defence doctrine

To counter any possible invasion, Cuba relies on a defence doctrine known as “war of all the people,” a strategy that dates to the post-Vietnam War period and was set out by the late Cuban leader Fidel Castro in 1980. As relations with the United States have worsened, the Cuban government has intensified what it calls “national defence days” to train for any invading force.

Television footage has shown elderly people firing old Kalashnikov rifles and women planting mines, while other clips showed ox-drawn carts carrying artillery pieces. The military map in the region includes U.S. sites and air and naval bases, along with signals intelligence locations linked to the United States, China and Russia, while Guantanamo Bay remains one of the most sensitive military points in the Caribbean.

Fuel shortages and morale

The Cuban military faces additional problems because of the U.S. embargo on oil shipments to the island. Cuba produces only about 40% of its daily crude oil needs, and the country experiences daily power cuts that can last for days, while streets are almost empty of cars because of fuel shortages even for basic transport.

Morale and motivation are also key factors. The Cuban army is suffering from the effects of a long economic crisis that has exhausted the population and weakened the armed forces’ ability to train and maintain weapons. Craig Deare, who served as senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs on the National Security Council at the start of Trump’s first term, said: “Maybe their rifles still work and maybe they have ammunition, but when you face the best in the world, you have no chance.”

What analysts say about a war

Evan Ellis, a professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College, said there are no signs that Cuba has any real offensive capability, but he said the island could fight a war of survival if it were invaded by the United States. “It will depend on how long they can hold out using guerrilla warfare methods. The basic strategy of the Cuban Communist Party is survival,” Ellis said.

In a separate warning on Monday, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel said any military action against the island would lead to a “bloodbath with unpredictable consequences,” after previously pledging to fight and die defending the country if it were attacked by the United States. Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state and a Cuban-American known for his sharp criticism of Havana, said Cuba was hosting Chinese and Russian intelligence bases and added that Washington and Havana were holding talks on changes that could satisfy Trump, though he said the chances of success were “not great.”

Rubio said: “The presence of a failed state 90 miles from our shores run by friends of our adversaries is a threat to national security.” Brian Fonseca, an expert on Cuban affairs and defence studies at Florida International University, said the drone report and the accusation against Raúl Castro were part of an American narrative meant to justify an invasion or possible military action against Cuba if the current negotiations fail. “The United States leaked this information to portray Cuba as an imminent threat. The Cuban military will not launch a pre-emptive strike against the United States, that would be suicide,” Fonseca said.