Putin Faces Declining Military Contract Signings Amid War Pressures

Russian President Vladimir Putin is under increasing pressure to strengthen the Russian military as the conflict in Ukraine continues. Reports indicate that the Kremlin is considering initiating a new wave of military mobilization after the State Duma elections scheduled for September, a move that could carry significant political and economic risks within Russia.

Independent Russian media outlets report a decline in the number of volunteers willing to join the armed forces, coinciding with ongoing human losses and slowed military progress on the Ukrainian front.

Data published by independent Russian media reveal that the number of Russians signing contracts with the Ministry of Defense during the first quarter of 2026 dropped by approximately 20% compared to the same period last year. Additionally, the influx of new recruits decreased by over one-third during the spring season.

Military Recruitment Challenges and Mobilization Discussions

Sources within the presidential administration and recruitment agencies, cited by the platforms "Verstka" and "Vazhniye Istoriya," report that the option of a general mobilization has returned to the discussion table for the first time since the partial mobilization campaign launched by Moscow in September 2022.

That previous mobilization triggered a large wave of emigration, with around 700,000 Russians leaving the country, mostly young and educated individuals. This exodus caused significant economic and political repercussions, leading the Kremlin to avoid repeating such a measure in recent years.

Reports indicate that Russian forces face growing difficulties in replacing their human losses. Some Western estimates suggest over 30,000 fatalities per month, while Anne Keast-Butler, director of the UK Government Communications Centre, estimated the total Russian military deaths since the start of the war at about 500,000 soldiers.

Military Stalemate and Recruitment Strategies

Despite an increased pace of attacks, Russian forces have only achieved limited territorial gains in recent months. This situation places additional pressure on military leadership to reinforce the front lines with new troops.

Although the scenario of general mobilization is being discussed, Kremlin-affiliated sources suggest Moscow might prefer less politically costly options. These include calling up reserve forces, enhancing financial incentives for contracted soldiers, and expanding recruitment campaigns within the regions.

The authorities have continued to raise bonuses for signing military contracts, alongside intensifying advertisements offering higher salaries and additional incentives for volunteers.

Foreign Fighters and Recruitment Quality Concerns

Additional reports indicate that Russia is seeking to attract foreign fighters. Ukrainian officials have mentioned plans to recruit approximately 18,500 fighters from abroad. Meanwhile, a human rights report stated that over 27,000 foreigners from 130 countries have joined the Russian military since the war began.

Independent media have shared testimonies from Russian soldiers describing a decline in the quality of new recruits, noting that some were brought in from prisons or vulnerable social groups, with others suffering from poor physical fitness or limited training.

There have also been reports of video footage showing men being detained in certain Russian cities and transported to recruitment offices, coinciding with a noticeable rise in online searches related to military mobilization terms. This reflects growing anxiety within Russian society.

Continued Ukrainian Attacks and Russian Defense Adjustments

Alongside the recruitment crisis, Ukraine has intensified long-range attacks using drones targeting military installations and infrastructure deep inside Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Moscow was compelled to redeploy some air defense systems to protect Moscow and the Kerch Bridge, indicating increased military pressure on Russia's internal front.

If the Kremlin proceeds with a new mobilization, it could provide the Russian army with additional manpower. However, this step may also trigger domestic political and economic challenges, especially if reactions similar to those following the 2022 mobilization campaign recur, which led hundreds of thousands of Russians to leave the country.