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World
A political understanding between Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Falih Al-Zaidi and Shiite leader Muqtada Al-Sadr grants the government 90 days to prove its control over militias and corruption.
A discreet political understanding appears to be taking shape between Muqtada Al-Sadr, leader of the Shiite National Movement, and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Falih Al-Zaidi. This agreement grants the government a fixed period to demonstrate its ability to enforce state authority and combat corruption amid increasing internal and external pressures concerning uncontrolled weapons and Iraq’s relations with the international community.
A senior figure within the Shiite National Movement, who requested anonymity, disclosed that Al-Zaidi’s recent visit to Najaf and his meeting with Al-Sadr were not merely ceremonial. Instead, they followed a series of confidential discussions addressing the future of the Iraqi state and the political and security challenges ahead.
The official stated that Al-Sadr has given the government a genuine opportunity to prove its capacity to fight corruption and centralize weaponry under state control. He is closely monitoring the government’s actions on these issues. The upcoming three months are expected to be decisive in shaping the relationship between the two parties and the future of this understanding.
According to the source, if the government achieves tangible progress during this period, it will enhance stability and pave the way for broader reforms. Conversely, failure could prompt a full reassessment of the political landscape.
This rapprochement follows shortly after the formation of the new government and coincides with Al-Sadr’s move to integrate Saraya al-Salam into the state apparatus, severing its organizational ties with the National Movement. Observers interpret this step as a political message that transcends organizational boundaries, reflecting a broader vision to rebalance internal Shiite dynamics and reopen discussions on the future of armed factions in Iraq.
Observers note that early practical signs of this approach have emerged through government actions against corruption, notably the arrest of a senior oil official on corruption allegations. Baghdad aims to demonstrate a seriousness distinct from previous efforts, which faced criticism for slow accountability or limited scope.
These developments coincide with significant political signals regarding weapons control. The Coordination Framework has expressed support for the government’s plan to monopolize arms under state authority and endorsed detaching the Popular Mobilization Forces from political, partisan, and social frameworks. They also authorized the prime minister to take necessary measures to safeguard national interests.
Analysts view this stance as a notable shift in the traditional Shiite political forces’ approach to one of Iraq’s most sensitive issues, especially amid growing international pressure on Baghdad to demonstrate full control over security and military decisions.
It is believed that Al-Zaidi’s government seeks to capitalize on the momentum created by Al-Sadr’s move, given that the issue of armed factions has gained prominence on the international agenda following accusations against some factions for involvement in attacks launched from Iraqi territory during the recent Iranian conflict.
Political analyst Mohammed Al-Tamimi considers the current rapprochement between Al-Sadr and Al-Zaidi not a full political alliance nor a sign of the Sadrist movement’s return to traditional politics. He told a news outlet that Al-Sadr aims to present himself as a guardian of the state project from outside formal power structures while granting the government a limited timeframe to prove its ability to fulfill promises on corruption, weapons, and services.
Al-Tamimi added that Al-Sadr’s support remains conditional on results. Should the government fail to make substantial progress during the upcoming period, Al-Sadr is likely to revert to opposition rhetoric and popular pressure.
He noted that the idea of an unannounced 90-day deadline aligns with recent messages, as Al-Sadr understands that offering unconditional support might implicate him in any potential government failure. Therefore, he prefers to maintain a position as a cautious observer and conditional supporter.
These developments occur amid increasing American and Western pressure on Baghdad, with political leaks indicating demands to remove armed factions from executive institutions. The continuation of international cooperation with Iraq is reportedly linked to the government’s success in strengthening state authority and reducing the influence of armed groups.
Given these circumstances, the next three months represent a critical test for Al-Zaidi’s government, not only before Iraq’s political forces but also before the Iraqi public, which has heard repeated promises of reform over many years without witnessing substantial change on the ground.
