U.S. Maritime Corridor Transforms Oil Flow in the Strait of Hormuz.. The Surprise Lies in the Numbers

The establishment of a U.S.-secured maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz has greatly increased oil flows through this strategic waterway, but shipment volumes remain at around half their pre-war levels, according to a Reuters analysis of specialized data.

President Donald Trump had announced in mid-August that "massive quantities of oil" were being shipped through the strait, yet data from tracking companies "Kpler" and "Lloyd's List Intelligence" show flows are still far below pre-war levels.

Sharp Increase in Oil Flows

White House officials told Axios that the United States has controlled the corridor along the Omani coast since mid-June, following a memorandum of understanding with Iran.

The U.S. military has been escorting convoys of ships since fighting resumed on July 8, amid renewed Iranian threats to attack vessels using this route.

According to a Reuters analysis based on Lloyd's criteria, around 330 million barrels of oil have exited the strait since July 8 on ships not linked to Iran—equivalent to about 4.9 million barrels per day.

However, flows rose steadily through August and September, averaging nearly 8 million barrels per day during the first seven days of September.

On September 7 alone, more than 14 million barrels passed through the strait.

In comparison, around 18 million barrels per day crossed the strait during peacetime, versus 1.4 million barrels during the initial phase of war when restrictions were first imposed, and 9.4 million barrels during negotiations when restrictions were lifted.

Lloyd's defines non-Iran-linked transit as a voyage by a vessel not heading to or departing from an Iranian port, not owned by Iran, not flying its flag, and not subject to sanctions or part of the "shadow fleet."

Reuters' analysis also excluded ships that used the Iranian route to exit the Strait of Hormuz.

Restrictions on Data

Amid Iranian threats to target vessels not using routes approved by Tehran, ships often disable their tracking transponders when traversing the U.S.-secured corridor, making direct monitoring difficult.

Lloyd's informed Reuters of a "margin of error" in tracking operations, while Kpler stated it has "a relatively high degree of confidence in total flow figures," though real-time tracking of every single transit is not possible.

Do U.S. Statements Match the Numbers?

The U.S. administration claims the moving average of flows reaches about nine million barrels per day—nearly one million more than the highest weekly average recorded by the tracking firms.

This difference equals the cargo capacity of a giant crude oil tanker every two days.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said, unlike tracking firms, "we know every ship and what it carries in these convoys we are running."

The U.S. government also confirmed the passage of around 18 million barrels within a single 24-hour period—a figure that cannot be ruled out, especially if a large number of ships transited within a concentrated timeframe.

Yet the data does not support Trump’s claim in a chart he posted on his Truth Social platform, stating that a daily flow of 18 million barrels has become the new normal.