535 Seats Under Test: How November Elections Could Shift Trump's Power Balance

The United States is heading toward the congressional midterm elections scheduled for November 3, an electoral event that goes beyond renewing parliamentary seats to determine the balance of power between the Republican and Democratic parties, and the extent of President Donald Trump's ability to pass his agenda during the last two years of his term.

American parliamentary elections are held every two years, according to the system established since the founding of the House of Representatives and the Senate in 1787. Since presidential elections are organized every four years, midterm elections come at the midpoint of the president's term, giving voters the opportunity to reshape the composition of Congress and exercise their role in determining the balance between the legislative and executive branches.

Voters in the November 3 elections are asked to choose their representatives at the federal level, in addition to voting in a number of local elections and referendums.

Candidates compete for 470 seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate, while the number of eligible voters is estimated at around 250 million, with an average abstention rate of approximately 43% in midterm elections since 2002.

House of Representatives.. All 435 Seats Up for Grabs
The American Congress consists of two chambers, the first being the House of Representatives, which represents citizens at the national level and includes 435 members elected for two-year terms. Its seats are distributed among states according to population, based on census data.

California leads the states in representation with 52 seats, followed by Texas with 38, then Florida with 28, and New York with 26, while Pennsylvania and Illinois have 17 seats each.

In contrast, states such as Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming settle for one representative each.

The chamber also includes delegates from the District of Columbia, Guam, the Virgin Islands, American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Puerto Rico, who participate in the work of the chamber and its committees without having the right to vote.

Constitutional rules require that a candidate for the House of Representatives be at least 25 years old, a US citizen for at least seven years, and a resident of the state in which they run for election.

In this year's elections, all 435 seats are contested, after Republicans held 219 seats compared to 214 for Democrats, with two vacant seats in Florida and Texas.

The competition gains additional importance due to battles over redistricting, as seven Republican states resorted to modifying their electoral maps to reduce potential losses, while Democrats in California sought to gain five additional seats.

Senate.. Renewing One-Third of the Seats
As for the Senate, it represents the states equally, as each state gets two members regardless of its population, bringing the total number of senators to 100.

The term of office is six years, but elections are held every two years to renew about one-third of the seats, ensuring the continuity of the chamber's work and preventing a complete change in its composition in a single election cycle.

This year, 35 seats are up for competition, including 22 held by Republicans and 13 held by Democrats.

Republicans currently hold 53 seats, compared to 45 for Democrats and two independents, Angus King and Bernie Sanders, who usually vote with the Democrats.

The Constitution requires that a candidate for the Senate be at least 30 years old, a US citizen for at least nine years, and a resident of the state they represent.

How Do Americans Vote?
Registered citizens who have reached the age of 18 are entitled to vote in congressional elections, and the competition is conducted under a plurality system, without setting a minimum turnout threshold. Candidates are usually chosen through primary elections, while some states allow non-competitive elections.

There is no unified and detailed federal rule for organizing voter registration and voting, as these procedures are left to the states. Most allow registration online, by mail, or in person at polling stations and vehicle registration offices.

Rules regarding declaring party affiliation upon registration, identification requirements, and first-time voting also vary.

Available voting methods include early voting, mail-in voting, and absentee voting, either without requiring a reason in some states, or after clarifying reasons for inability to attend the polling station in other states.

The Help America Vote Act of 2006 also mandates equipping polling stations with the necessary technical means for voting and counting votes.

Elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate are held on the first Tuesday following the first Monday of November in every even-numbered year, a date set by Congress in 1845.

Congressional Powers and the Future of Trump's Agenda
The importance of midterm elections stems from the broad powers possessed by Congress, not only in legislating laws but also in overseeing the executive branch and balancing the president's influence.

The two chambers can influence funding for agencies, programs, and presidential initiatives, summon ministers and federal agency directors to hearings, and open parliamentary investigations into specific issues.

The House of Representatives also has the authority to initiate impeachment proceedings against the president, through a simple majority vote, before referring the case to the Senate, which requires a two-thirds approval of its members to issue a conviction and removal decision.

If Democrats control both chambers of Congress, Trump's agenda may face obstacles during the last two years of his term, as the party announced its intention to open investigations into the president and his aides on suspicion of corruption cases, alongside resuming military aid to Ukraine, ending the war with Iran, and lifting tariffs imposed on countries around the world.

But congressional power is not without limitations, as the president can use veto power against laws passed by the two chambers, while Congress can override this objection with a two-thirds majority, as happened in 1973 when the War Powers Resolution was enacted, limiting the president's ability to send armed forces without congressional approval.

The November 3 elections are not limited to the federal level, as they also include the election of 36 governors out of 50 states, along with renewing city councils and selecting judges, local officials, and school board representatives.

The states also witness 43 local referendums addressing various issues, including abortion, data centers, the housing crisis, and taxes.

Thus, midterm elections represent the final electoral test for the Republican Party during Trump's presidency, before the presidential elections scheduled for 2028, given the importance of the results in determining the nature of the relationship between the White House and Congress in the coming phase.