From Iran to Immigration and Economy: 9 Factors Determining Trump's Fate in Midterm Elections

The chances of US President Donald Trump and his Republican Party in the midterm elections face multiple challenges that go beyond declining popularity. These include the repercussions of the war with Iran, rising cost of living, controversy over Jeffrey Epstein files, immigration policies, the rise of independent candidates, and concerns related to data centers, at a time when the Democratic opposition appears more capable of capitalizing on public discontent.

According to a report published by the British newspaper "The Telegraph," prepared by writer Benedict Smith, nine key factors may determine the fate of Republican control of Congress in the midterm elections scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The paper's correspondents spent nine weeks in the United States monitoring issues that could affect Trump's and his party's prospects.

The report noted that election results will not affect Trump's stay in the White House, but he will face a different political situation if Democrats succeed in regaining control of Congress. He could become a president with limited influence during the last two years of his term, as his party's ability to pass its agenda declines.

War with Iran.. Promise to end wars turns into a burden
The report places the war with Iran at the forefront of challenges facing Trump, after the operation initially presented as a limited move to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons turned into a conflict lasting nearly eight months, despite the US president having spoken about a war that would not exceed five weeks.

Trump tries to downplay the war's repercussions by describing it as a "minor deviation from the path," but its continuation has become an electoral weakness for Republicans, according to the report, which cited party strategists secretly acknowledging that the war severely harms attempts to retain control of Congress.

The repercussions are not limited to the length of the confrontation; the war led to higher energy prices and increased voter fatigue from its continuation, while some Republican candidates began announcing their disagreement with the president regarding it.

Economy and Cost of Living
The economy comes second, as Trump faces difficulty convincing voters that their living conditions are improving, despite his campaign pledge to end inflation and lower living costs from day one of his return to the White House.

The report indicates that filling a Ford F-150 truck tank currently costs around $100, an increase of $30 compared to last year, while mortgage interest rates have risen to levels that negatively affected home sales.

Over the past twelve months, consumer prices rose faster than wage growth, leading to a decline in purchasing power for American families. Record diesel prices also increased shipping, fishing, and farming costs, causing problems for Republicans even in conservative states like Texas.

Trump's tariffs imposed on several trading partners, and the subsequent trade tensions with traditional allies such as Canada and the European Union, failed to end inflationary pressures. Inflation rose from 3% when he took office in January 2025 to 3.7% in September 2026, despite continued economic growth and low unemployment.

Epstein Files and Political Scandals
The third factor relates to the files of deceased American financier Jeffrey Epstein, convicted of sex crimes, whose political repercussions Trump still faces despite his attempts to close the case.

According to the report, the files, fully released in November of last year, raised questions about Epstein's relationships with wealthy and influential figures, including Trump, who stated he ended his friendship with the financier before any suspicions about his criminal activities emerged.

However, Trump's initial opposition to the bill releasing the files, and what the report described as poor management by the US administration of the document release process, contributed to increasing conspiracy theories and political controversy around the issue, which Democrats now exploit to attack their Republican rivals.

Sources of discontent within Trump's base are not limited to this issue; the report notes that tightened procedures by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), previous plans to broadcast the execution of a terrorist live before abandoning them, and the publication of AI-generated images of the president in the form of Christ on Easter Sunday provoked objections even among some of his supporters.

Immigration Policies and Their Repercussions
Immigration represents the fourth challenge, after Trump's pledge to combat illegal immigration helped attract record numbers of Latino voters in the 2024 elections, including legal immigrants and their children who opposed the presence of undocumented migrants.

But scenes following his inauguration changed, with ICE raids spreading in streets and homes, sometimes characterized by chaos and violence. The Migration Policy Institute estimates that approximately 660,000 people were deported during the last fiscal year.

The report indicates that Minneapolis became a turning point, after more than 2,000 federal agents were deployed there amid widespread protests against arrests, and the killing of two American citizens, Renee Good and Alex Pretty, both aged 37, during confrontations with security forces.

In the aftermath, the White House fired Border Czar Gregory Bovino and then-Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem. Although some voters continue to support Trump's border policies, polls show growing rejection of the style of immigration raid implementation.

Election Fraud Allegations
The report places election integrity fifth, noting that Trump repeatedly warned against voting by non-American immigrants in the midterms, an accusation he previously used to challenge the results of the 2020 elections lost to Joe Biden.

Since returning to power, Trump launched extensive investigations to try to prove his claims and prepare the ground for challenging future election results. In a televised speech in July, he said his administration identified more than 275,000 non-citizen voters, claiming they existed in four states leaning toward Democrats.

Israel and Independent Voters
The sixth factor addresses the Democratic Party's hardline stance toward Israel, which strained relations with part of the Jewish electorate, but the report doubts Republicans' ability to capitalize on this shift.

Jewish voters, a significant bloc in swing states like Michigan, generally lean toward positions more liberal than the average American voter, and many do not trust Trump or desire his continued control of Congress.

Some strategists believe anti-Israel stances within the Democratic Party might push some Jewish voters away, but they may not necessarily vote Republican; instead, they might turn to independent candidates or abstain.

Conversely, polls show Arab American voters returning to support Democrats, after many distanced themselves from the party in the 2024 elections due to the Biden administration's stance on Israel and Gaza.

The seventh factor is the rise of independent candidates, who are attracting voters disappointed with Trump but unwilling to switch to the Democratic camp.

The report notes these candidates benefited from populist rhetoric focusing on local issues, such as data centers and surveillance cameras, as well as criticizing the war with Iran and the risks it poses to Americans' lives and increased inflation.

Democratic Weakness and Data Centers
The eighth factor is the extent to which Trump can exploit Democratic weaknesses. The president has consistently portrayed his opponents as extremists hostile to the United States, seeking open borders and changing social values, but the report suggests this strategy may not suffice this time.

Midterm elections have turned into a referendum on the performance of a president with declining popularity, while polls showed a relative resurgence in Democratic popularity since September, leading Republicans by about 10 points in surveys asking which party voters want to control Congress.

Additionally, Democratic voters are more willing to participate in voting compared to Republicans, by a margin reaching 17 points according to Pew Research Center, which could threaten the incumbent party's chances, especially since independent voters usually tend to vote against the party controlling the White House in midterms.

Data Centers
The ninth and final factor is data centers, which have become a contentious local issue transcending partisan divisions due to fears of rising electricity prices and massive water consumption.

Despite Trump's support for these centers as necessary to maintain US leadership in the AI race with China, polls show 7 out of 10 voters oppose building them.

The report indicates that Republicans who supported expanding data center construction began retreating from their positions, while Democrats exploit the issue to attack their opponents.

According to a model by "The Economist" magazine, about one in five voters who voted for Trump in 2024 and live within two kilometers of a planned data center intend to vote for Democrats, a proportion three times higher than among voters living farther away.