Israeli Assessments: Iran on Path to Collapse, Washington Awaiting Decisive Moment

Confirmed new Israeli intelligence assessments state that the Iranian regime is rapidly moving toward collapse, noting that Tehran and Washington are engaged in a "game of time," where Washington bets on the fall of the Iranian regime, while Iranian leadership seeks to exploit economic pressure to halt the U.S. blockade.

Jerusalem Post reported after six months of war in Iran, Israeli security officials believe the Iranian regime, despite its ongoing aggression against neighbors, is heading toward internal deterioration, which could take months or even years, but strict economic sanctions and international cooperation could significantly accelerate the process.

It added: "The regime is currently struggling to contain street and market unrest, along with rising unemployment rates, and oil exports have been almost entirely frozen, with the economic situation continuing to deteriorate."

On the military front, according to the newspaper, Israeli officials believe the effects of intelligence and operational gains have not disappeared; security sources confirm Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment or moved centrifuges, while most of its infrastructure remains buried deep underground.

A senior Israeli security official said: "They carried out various de-escalation measures and actions, but they haven't moved anything. Their defense industry has been destroyed, and the Mount Al-Fas facility hasn't changed due to the lack of aerial munitions capable of destroying it."

According to the Israeli paper, current conditions are governed by a "game of time," where American timing is measured by fuel prices and President Donald Trump’s patience, while pressure on Iran increases day by day.

It noted that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly urged reaching a diplomatic agreement "as long as we are still able to stand on our feet," amid escalating tensions within high government levels.

As per the report, Iran currently refuses to consider concessions, believing it can withstand economic pressures, yet U.S. statements about imposing broad-ranging sanctions have placed Tehran under unprecedented pressure.

Israeli security officials note growing concern within Israel’s defense establishment over the possibility of an unexpected Iranian move, with Tehran likely attempting to relieve its economic pressure by attacking Israel in an effort to force limited negotiations and reach new understandings.

The paper stated Israel’s message to Tehran was clear: if Iran attacks, there will be no return to war, and officials emphasized that Israel’s response would target vital national infrastructure that a collapsing regime would be unable to rebuild.

Meanwhile, Iranian officials remain concerned about the possibility of another surprise attack, and rising tensions continue to alarm top figures in Tehran.